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Uniquely, the US civilian economy expanded over the course of WW II for two reasons. First, to win the war, Roosevelt dropped New Deal socialism and economically destructive regulations and turned to conventional economists and Republican businessmen to spur the civilian economy and war production. Second, the US became the hub of Allied war production, taking a large bite out of British finances and patents ending their system of imperial preferences. These two effects were unique to that era.

As for the Russian economy, due to sanctions, Europe adapted and found non-Russian sources of raw materials, while Russia found new export markets. The more substantial harm is in Russia losing access to US and EU technology, equipment, and parts. This has especially hurt the Russian civilian economy, while China, North Korea, Iran, and others -- for a price -- have supplied stop gaps and substitutes for the Russian military effort.

We ought not though let examination of Russian trees divert our attention from assessment of the forest. On the net, Russian power and strategic position have been diminished by their attack on Ukraine. Russia is relatively weaker and will soon be struggling to maintain control of their federation. Putin hopes that his current purge and another military effort will somehow bring victory over Ukraine. There is no victory though to be had for Russia.

” On the net, Russian power and strategic position have been diminished by their attack on Ukraine. Russia is relatively weaker and will soon be struggling to maintain control of their federation. Putin hopes that his current purge and another military effort will somehow bring victory over Ukraine. There is no victory though to be had for Russia. “

God Willing we will all be here June 1, 2025 and we can check back and assess the accuracy of this forecast.