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Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1
NEWS ANALYSIS KHARKOV FRONT, 12:30 MAY 10th 2024
There is massive activity among both Russian and Ukrainian social media accounts about what’s happening on the Kharkov front. Ukrainian sources claim that RuAF has failed to break through Ukrainian defence lines and some Russian accounts talk about taking settlements and advances.
But what is actually happening on the ground and who is right? Well, both sides could both be right and wrong at the same time. First of all, there is no massive Russian advance, just reconnaissance in force and clearing of the border area, at some places, on the Ukrainian side of the border.
The main Ukrainian defence line is situated 5-10 km from the border and there are no Russian attempts to break through it, so the Ukrainians are right when they say that the Russians haven’t broken through.
At the same time Russian claims to have taken some settlements on the border might be true, but these settlements are no longer settlements but just some ruins and stones on the ground.
So even if RuAF might have captured Strilcha (1 on map 2) situated on the border this is no big victory. Russian forces need to reach places like Lypchi (2) or Volchansk (3) to be seen to have made real progress in the area.
This operation is probably, at the present stage, mostly aimed at establishing an up to 5 km deep buffer zone on the Ukrainian side of the border, to make future Ukrainian incursions impossible, at least in this 40-60 km broad area.
But the fog of war is thick.
The first map is from
@rybar_force
but not from X, but their Telegram channels.
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1788888804624830861
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Novokalynove in Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Looks like they made an advance in the south.
What I wonder about is the effects on overall Ukrainian reserves. I was under the idea they have little.
So if they have to divert what reserves they have to the Kharkiv region that may weaken the eastern zone or take strength away from any summer offensives they had possibly planned.
” Russian forces need to reach places like Lypchi (2) or Volchansk (3) to be seen to have made real progress in the area.”
Evacuation of civilian population ongoing in Vovchansk district so they are close to that goal.