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Get Ready for Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre

Unless the other parties change the narrative, the Conservatives will romp to power.

Michael Harris 29 Jan 2024The Tyee Michael Harris, a Tyee contributor, is a highly awarded journalist and documentary maker. His investigations have sparked four commissions of inquiry.

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A side shot of a middle-aged white man with greased back black hair wearing a dark blue suit, white shirt and blue tie. He is standing at a podium with one fist raised in the air.

Unless things change, this photo could be a preview of Pierre Poilievre’s victory celebration after the next election, writes Michael Harris. Photo by Sean Kilpatrick, the Canadian Press.

Nothing is clearer in Canadian politics than that the next federal election is Pierre Poilievre’s to lose.

According to the latest Nanos poll, the Conservative Party of Canada has a 13-point lead over the governing Liberals. Poilievre has a 10-point lead over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the choice for PM, though according to the polls, neither man is the rage.

There is no mystery about why Canadians are unhappy with the current government. Times are undeniably tough. Canadians still have a COVID hangover, feel angry about affordability issues on everything from homes to groceries and worry about the stalling economy.

A lot have also developed a visceral dislike of Trudeau. There are a variety of reasons for that, from deficits stretching out to a distant fiscal horizon, to his occasional lapses of personal judgment. You don’t feast on caviar when a lot of your fellow citizens are staring into stone soup.

The question is this: Despite the Conservatives’ commanding lead in the polls, does Poilievre have the political maturity to maintain his lead and close the deal in an election that must be held by Oct. 20, 2025?

Now is the time to ask that question, because Poilievre’s journey is about to enter a new phase.

Trudeau hinted at that last week during a pep talk to his beleaguered caucus following the cabinet retreat in Montreal. If the polls have it right, half of Liberal MPs would be in danger of losing their seats if an election were called now.

Most coverage of that speech focused on Trudeau’s need to reassure the troops that he still has it in him to lead them in a general election — and not over a cliff.

The speech was critically important, because Liberal MP Ken McDonald had publicly mused that with the polls reading like an obituary, it might be time for a leadership review. The Newfoundland MP quickly walked that suggestion back, and the caucus closed ranks around Trudeau — for now.

But there was something else Trudeau said when trying to rally the troops that could make all the difference in this political year for Poilievre. He said that it is easier to be in opposition than in government.

Trudeau explained that in opposition, a leader talks only about what he wants to talk about, almost always the other leader’s shortcomings. In government, the prime minister has to talk about everything, including things that don’t necessarily qualify for their personal highlight reel.

Like freebie luxury vacations, or immigration levels set so high they exacerbate the housing shortage for everyone, including immigrants. Or a health-care system that appears to be overwhelmed. Or palpitations at the gas pump.

Poilievre has capitalized masterfully on the sense of anger in the country over these kitchen-table issues. He has a sharp mind, and an even sharper tongue.

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