The dying days of the Russian Federation? Vladimir Putin's empire could follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union

Financial Post (Canada) ^ | 16 April 2024 | Diane Francis

[BeauBo]

The Soviet-Afghan War destroyed Afghanistan and eventually the Soviet Union, which dissolved in 1991 into 15 republics. Numerous satellite states in Europe were liberated at the same time.

History may repeat as the Russia-Ukraine war weakens Moscow, financially and geopolitically. Russia’s 2022 invasion was about reoccupying a former colony, Ukraine, but there are other Russian republics that hope to become liberated...

… in December 1991, Ukrainians voted for independence and Ukraine became the first of the Soviet republics to leave. The Baltic republics followed, as did Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and others. Now there is unrest across the Russian Federation…

… a story in the Moscow Times in February:

“Russian indigenous and minority activists have long warned that the Kremlin is banking on using the country’s non-Slavic population as cannon fodder in its protracted quest for capturing Ukrainian territories.”

Chess master and political activist Garry Kasparov predicted the war will result in the collapse of the Russian Federation.

“I’m pretty sure that within the next five years, Russia will end up smaller,” said Kasparov, who predicted that the republics of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chechnya “very likely will walk away.”

[woodpusher]

“It is a shame the Russians need to fight with such inferior weapons”

You fight with what you have. Overwhelmingly, what Russia has, is what was left over from the Soviet era. They are burning through it at a hectic pace.

That's what I was saying. The poor Russians are fighting with old, dilapidated and inferior weapons of century old technology. Many have nothing but an old shovel from a labor camp.

The Ukraine on the other hand, arms its men with the latest and greatest weapons provided by the greatest nations on the planet, with tecnology from the 21st century. Compare using a great M1A1 Abrams tank, with 21st century armor, to using a jury-rigged Turtle-tank, with cobbled together armor from whatever was available, and just welded on.

And consider the anti-air defense. The Ukraine has such advanced techology as the state of the art Patriot Missile System with its state of the art multi-million dollar missiles. How can the mundanely named Russian systems compete with that?

As for the its Black Sea Fleet, the large Russia ships are old, outdated, and being destroyed by the Ukraine. The Ukraine has no old or outdated large ships in its Black Sea Fleet.

And now in the air, the Ukraine has the most modern F-16 technology, sure to be the ultimate game changer. Finally, Samuyil will have an aircraft worthy of his skills as ace pilot. With Vadym Voroshylov, call sign Varaya, the Ghost of Vinnytsia, call sign taken from the greatest air ace in history, Erich Hartmann, they are sure to provide complete air supremacy.

Also, as you note, the inferior Russian forces are running out of everything. They started running out of missiles in 2022, just a few months into the Special Military Operation (SMO), and it went downhill from there. They have run out of everything, unable to supply an SMO, much less a war.

[BeauBo]

Kyiv Post reports:

“The first batch of F-16 multirole fighters might arrive after Orthodox Easter on Sunday, May 5, as per the current plan according to Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash.”

(ATACMS have already begun impacting at a significantly higher rate in Russia’s rear areas, and mass casualty inducing cluster munitions are also already increasing on Russian forces at the front - it appears that the post mud season Russian meat wave offensive is heading into a death trap.)

[kiryandil]

Piloted by contract NATO pilots, no doubt.

Word on the street is that the Ukie pilot trainee meat isn't up to snuff yet, and they'll get snuffed right away by veteran Russian pilots.

The Ghost of Kiev is long dead, Wimpy.