[nwrep]

I predict at least 2% of the posts to this thread will be Freepers stomping their feet that there will be cheating and fraud in the election and so no one should analyze any polls.

Isn't some skepticism of polls warranted, especially these early ones?

[Owen]

Nope. The correct analysis is change from a given pollster. If they hold methodology constant, it measures all that matters — change in attitude.

Unlike previous years concern about oversampling was at the forefront, but GOP and Dems are now fringe parties. Independents 46%. So if the methodology and sample parameters (like age, gender, etc) are held constant, you get a legitimate measure of attitude change.

Because it is independents, there is not going to be much of that.