“Another important unknown is where the drones and missiles would be launched — from Iraq or Syria, [which could prompt a thin claim of deniability by Tehran] — or from Iranian territory.”
They are going to talk big, say they are going to attack, perform an attack and then deny it was them?
That would undercut the entire reason for the attack and make them look like wimps, silly writer.
If Iran uses one of its surrogates to make the attack, and lets all of its other surrogates know it was them, then that will be enough to assuage the radicals.
Personally I believe that the Biden administration is hoping and praying (to Allah perhaps?) that Iran will do nothing. I don't think the Biden administration would be helped by a wider war in the Middle East.
Drones from that distance would be spotted “1000 miles away”. Literally. They mag not be able to hit Israel at that distance without interception . Iran would not want to hit an Israeli embassy in any country eg outside Israel as this would be an attack on that country’s soil - an act of war. Terror maybe they could have some plausible deniability.
Israel has a few submarines. I would not be surprised if at least one was near Iran. Iran has some vulnerable targets susceptible to submarine launched missile attack, such as coastal oil facilities. They cannot afford for those to go out of commission - not financially or politically. They may wish to retaliate, but should probably consider being “proportionate”. Something they can save face on, without escalating to where it requires another response.
Israel only hit that embassy in Syria because Iran is supplying ISIS and Hezbullah through Syria, and Syria is still in an official state of war with Israel, and they had some high value targets meeting to coordinate likely with Hezbullah in Lebanon. Everyone is expecting a response but I would guess the diplomats are urging some restraint.