It’s time we talked about the fall of Kyiv

Far from this being a frozen conflict, a nightmare scenario is edging into view because the West is failing to send arms.

Contrary to the predominant view that this is a perpetual “frozen conflict”, with neither side able to win a decisive advantage, the front line is bitterly contested and there is a real risk of Ukrainian forces being pushed back. Nato leaders must hope their gathering in Washington in July for a summit celebrating the 75th anniversary of the alliance is not consumed by such a crisis.

Only a year ago, it was all very different. The hope then was of a Ukrainian spring offensive that would reclaim territory. That didn’t work and, as the American magazine Foreign Affairs put it this week, “Ukraine is bleeding. Without new US military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military.”

The governments who support Ukraine most strongly are clearly worried and considering even the worst scenarios. The US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has issued several warnings that Ukraine is running out of money, while urging Congress to pass the aid bill that is stuck amid legislative infighting. The US risked being responsible for Ukraine’s defeat, she said.

A Russian advance would obviously be disastrous for the Ukrainians. It would also confront the West with all manner of tough challenges. Would the allies send troops to defend Kyiv?

President Macron has clearly sensed the danger and is trying to steer the West towards a more muscular approach by raising the possibility of ground troops. Other countries, such as Germany, strongly object. When will the message be finally understood that peace for European populations is guaranteed only by strength? When Ukraine falls and Putin moves on to menacing the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden or Norway?

Russia lacks the manpower and military strength to occupy Ukraine indefinitely,

What part of Ukraine? Not the part they currently "occupy", or as they claim have annexed and made a part of Russia. And which was in rebellion against the Ukrainian government for the past 7 years, and in fact were following exactly the "lesson of history" that those who go on fighting may rise again.

For the Donbas the "going down fighting" phase was 2014-2022, and the period since then is the "rising again and recovering their freedom" from the hated Zelensky / Kiev regime and their Nazi paramilitaries.

As you point out borders in this region and not immutable, they are quite fluid. You mention Poland's occupation during World War II, but what is probably a better model for looking at Ukraine's fate is the dissolution of the geographical nation of Poland in the late 18th century. There was no Poland on maps of Europe from 1795 until the end of World War 1 and the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. The victorious allies decided to break up the empires that had waged war against them, and devolve them back into smaller countries. Poland was recreated in the land that the Russian Empire, the Austrian empire and Prussia had annexed 125 years previously.

Map of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth before the Partitions, 1773.

Here's the same geographic area after the three partitions of the late 18th century. The entire area of Poland is now divided among other States:

Area of former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth after 3rd Partition: 1795

Partitition is the tranditional mechanism of ending conflict in this area. Look at the former Yugoslavia, for a more recent example. There were nasty civil wars there, but eventually everyone sorted themselves out into smaller more homogeneous nation-states and the world moved on.

This is a possible outcome for Ukraine at this point. Clearly it was not stable and successful as it was previously configured.

This 2010 election map shows the pre-war divisions in the country pretty clearly:

Russia is not the only country that is unhappy with the treatment of their linguistic and ethnic minorities in Ukraine, so perhaps future partitioning of Ukraine will attach Polish, Hungarian and Romanian enclaves to their respective nations, essentially something similar to what was done with the former Yugoslavia. Only easier, because Hunary, Poland and Romania already exist and are decent countires for their citizens.

Map showing the approximate dates when various parts of the entity we today call "Ukraine" were added to the country. As you can see, a lot of the territory that Ukraine claims is of relatively recent vintage.

Looking at the Polish example, after 140 years of being part of Hungary, Russia and Germany (Prussia) those areas were taken away and returned to the reconstituted nation of Poland. The resulting map was changed again, after WW2 when Russia kept a chunk of Eastern Poland and Poland was granted a chunk of former Germany.

Map of Ukraine's Historic Territory

The idea that these fairly recent borders are somehow sacred and can't be changed is stupid.

Partition, moving borders, and even population migration has long been a feature of resolving Central European conflicts, and it is likely to be the best way to end the carnage and destruction in this one too.

My point was that Ukraine is fighting for her existence and that Russia is reaching beyond her strength.

One part of Ukraine as it existed prior to 2014 is fighting for the right to force another part of Ukraine to remain under their domination. The Kiev regime insists that the post Soviet boundaries be enforced, and that Kiev remain in charge of all of it.

Even when you go to the region around Kiev, it's not clear how much support the Kiev regime really has at this point, even in their own capital city.

The many thousands of men being conscripted and press-ganged are not necessarily "fighting for Ukraine" they are unwillingly forced to participate as soldiers or face terrible consequences.

Now that Zelensky has cancelled elections, banned opposition parties, shut down opposition press, and even seized property of the largest religious denomination in the country - it seems disingenuous to claim that "Ukraine" is fighting for this or that.

The Zelensky regime is fighting a war with their conscript army. The American people have been press-ganged into paying for it. One cannot help but wonder how important the obvious bribes the Kiev regime has paid to American politicians (and their families) is in keeping that funding going.

The war began as a Civil War in the Donbas. So, that also means there are lots of people who were (politically) "Ukrainians" who are fighting against the Kiev regime. That battle started shortly after the coup d'etat in 2014 which overthrew the government.

Some people in Ukraine are fighting to maintain the post-Soviet borders of Ukraine.

Other people in Ukraine are fighting to leave the political union with the Kiev government, and move the borders. Until 2022 this was a civil war, then Russia entered, so it's more a regional war now. But the fundamental aspect of it hasn't really changed that much. .

An effective national strategy requires that national needs be recognized and then translated into concrete objectives that address those needs, with resources and means directed toward attaining those objectives with a credible prospect of success at a reasonable cost. The plan to do that then becomes the national strategy. Putin's invasion of Ukraine fails on multiple levels.

As much as Ukraine has suffered, Russia has also experienced severe losses that she cannot make good. Touting annexation of territory from Ukraine will fool no one even though many Russians will pretend to believe. In time, when the reckoning comes, Russia is likely to lose more territory and influence than she has gained under Putin. As Yeltsin's era can be said to have been one of chaotic corruption and economic turmoil, Putin's will be known as one of disciplined corruption and grave strategic blundering that squandered any benefits to Russia's national position.

The outer perimeter, is the border of Ukraine, and nothing inside, is Russian territory.

https://twitter.com/BrilliantMaps/status/1498655743167315976
Electoral Geography:
https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/u/ukraine/ukraine-independence-referendum-1991.html
- - - Ethnic Groups in Ukraine - 1926 Soviet Cencus

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Moscow's proxy war in, and invasion of, Ukraine, was planned by Putin, long ago:

Putin began planning the invasion of Georgia, in 1999.
Putin began planning the invasion of Ukraine, in 2003. See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2AwAXcScds

On The Effective Use of Proxy Warfare - by Andrew Lewis Peek, May 2021, Dissertation for PhD

CHAPTER THREE: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, 2013-2016 [pg 118 of 446 in the PDF file] "This chapter will examine Russia’s use of proxy forces in Ukraine from the beginning of demonstrations in Kiev’s Maidan Square on November 21, 2013 to the dissipation of the conflict in 2016. Though it covers all the high-intensity periods of the war, this chapter is focused on the fighting in Donbas and not Russia’s takeover of Crimea."

The Budapest Memorandum And The Russia-Ukraine Crisis

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