You think that Ron Paul, Lyndon Larouche, Duncan Hunter, Pat Buchannon, Marianne Williamson, and the 100s of people like that thought they were going to be President of the United States?
Each case is separate.
LaRouche was crazy so he probably thought he would be president—ditto for Marianne Williamson. :-)
I think Pat Buchanan thought he could win.
Ron Paul is probably the best argument for your view—but he was running to expose issues not for future employment.
The “stepping stone” argument is the one I have an issue with—serious campaigns are way too much blood sweat and tears to not care if you win.
Nikki was in it to win it imho.
Let us travel back in our time machine:
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2024/01/nikki-haley-could-surprise-us/677091/
https://www.limaohio.com/columns/2023/02/16/s-e-cupp-dont-count-nikki-haley-out-she-could-win-it/
https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1660992748827074560
“We’re in it to win it.”
The candidates say this because their staff is in it to win it—and they better be as well.
If any of the candidates I worked for said anything different I and most of the staff would walk—immediately.