“this black swan event was extremely strange, catastrophic for the US supply chain, and certainly a black swan event. For the purpose of this post, I will refrain from speculation”
It is hypocrisy to call it a “black swan” event and then say he will refrain from speculation, when, on the face of it to call it a black swan event IS mere speculation.
No, the Francis Scott Key Bridge is not the only major route from the Port of Baltimore to major east-west and north-south highways and that inludes highways capable of handling hazardous materials. The Bridge is only the most convenience route if what is desired is to head south from Baltimore. So, meanwhile, some traffic will have to go a short ways north from the port, then east to get to the next major north-south route. The supply chain issue will have some added expense TO SOME SHIPMENTS but will not be an overall major issue for shipping altogther, given the percentages of shipments that only want to go north or west and not south to begin with.
“Let me begin by explaining how crucial the Francis Scott Key Bridge was to America’s supply chain. Around 52.3 million tons of international cargo estimated to be worth $80.8 billion passed through the port in 2023. Around 4,900 trucks, carrying around $28 billion in goods, must be rerouted due to the bridge collapse.”
As I noted above Armstrong implies untruths. As I explained above the whole of the $80.8 billion in cargo and 4,900 trucks with $28 billion in goods will not have to be rerouted, only that portion needing to arrive from or go out to a direction south of Balitimore. That traffic needing to arrive from or go out to the west or the north will not require rerouting.
BTT
Accidents are not economic black swan events. At least not by the definition in the book. After the event happens, you should be able to look at the data and see the event forming.
This is not even close to anything but a major screw up.
Expand Savannah and screw that place. They can pay extra for the longer deliveries.
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ping