ZEEPER FOLLIES PINGLIST!(((PING!)))
Having seen these weapons test driven for two years in Ukraine, I’d expect to see significant changes on the arms market in the future. Lots and lots more drones, missiles and cheap, cheap FAB bombs. The market for targets, armor and warships, should collapse.
Difficult to believe UK arms exports have declined when BAe Systems is reported to have a record order book. Its difficult to believe this is due to increased domestic demand either because the UK Government is stubbornly refusing to increase defence spending above 2.3% gdp despite current events.
So if the UK defence budget is remaining stagnant, and yet Britain’s largest defence contractor is currently doing a roaring trade, where are all these weapons going? Are donations to Ukraine not counting as exports? And yet France is doing the same thing?
If true , most sources state their contributions are pitiful compared to Vlads massive manufacturing base , all say they need manpower. The one thing all the money in the world can’t buy- willing men of fighting age….the Ukie average aged soldier is now up past 44 years old, and most all have been pressed into service.
……are you doubling up on those Hopium drugs?
ZEEPER FOLLIES PINGLIST!(((PING!)))
Ukr West Armour Graveyard, 4th Abrams, 2 Caesars Destroyed, Ukr/West Despair FAB Bombs, Rus Advance
Those five year averages (2014–18 and 2019–23) mask the historic scale of the collapse in Russian arms exports, since the 2022 invasion.
Sales that are included in that 2019–23 time period, are in many cases no longer being delivered (such as deliveries to its biggest customer, India) - they have been diverted to scrapyards in Ukraine instead. There has been a significant reversal in arms flows (mainly parts, like spare engines, and ammo) between Russia and its top arms customers, as Russia buys back previous exports to prosecute the war in Ukraine.
Sanctions, and now direct attacks on Russian production facilities are having significant effects on reducing Russian capacity to produce advanced combat platforms.
The Russian brand for its weapons has been badly tarnished by poor performance in Ukraine. Not only the shockingly bad combat performance against old Western weapons, but also assessments of how reliable of a supplier Russia may be in the future.
The current rate of new orders has declined more than is reflected by those five year averages. Customers are shopping elsewhere. China, until recently Russia’s largest customer, has embarked on a major program to manufacture itself, what it used to buy from Russia. That alone is a disaster to Russian Foreign Military Sales. Its other top customers, such as Egypt, Algeria and Vietnam, are all seeking other options.
From the article: “while Russia exported major arms to 31 states in 2019, it exported to only 12 in 2023.” That will likely continue to contract further in 2024.
The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the more Russia’s customers will move on to other suppliers for the long term, rather than just pausing orders and deliveries.
There has been an historic collapse of Russia’s arms export industry since the 2022 invasion. As is the case with Russia’s natural gas industry, Putin has squandered away Russia’s customer base, that had taken generations to build.
