Many of the states are “hybrid” like Texas.
In that example some delegates are awarded state-wide but most are awarded one Congressional district at a time.
That makes the calculation a bit more complicated since none of the polling is broken down by Congressional district.
Right, Trump will get the 44 statewide delegates, and I assume he will get a majority in all but a handful of the 39 congressional districts - let’s say 30 - so that’s 90 plus 44 - 134/0
And let’s say he gets a plurality in four more - that’s 8/4 and Haley gets a majority in 5 urban districts 0/15
Total split 142/19.
That’s about what I’m expecting - just based on typical urban(D) vs rural(R) split, and assuming Haley is the Democrat.