Ukraine needs at least 8,000 155mm artillery shells per week.
When Ukraine had some inventory, Ukraine used 6,000 - 7,000 per week in the stretch of the offense -type weather pattern during 2023.
When Ukraine was really pressed, and had inventory, Ukraine used 8,000 per week.
Ukraine also needs 10’s of thousands of shoulder-launched anti-air missiles, and a like number of vehicle-launched anti-air missiles.
Russia took a gamble, using air power to launch glide -bombs, a number of which, were thermobaric, on Avdiivka. And the Russian gamble worked.
Because Ukraine did not have anywhere near the amount of forward anti-air systems, available.
That is also a major reason for the Ukraine offensive in 2023: Ukraine troops were sent forward with some anti-armor, should-launced missiles, but an incredible lack of anti-air missiles.
In 2023, Russian helicopters worked over:
- advanced Ukraine positions
- advancing Ukrainians
- advancing Ukraine vehicles
During that offensive, Ukraine military vehicles used for transporting the wounded, were assigned drivers from various foreign countries. The drivers DID NOT SPEAK NOR UNDERSTAND Ukrainian, Russian. A few knew English.
The communications problems led to several Ukraine vehicles lingering or wandering about, instead of working efficiently.
They were easy targets for Russian helicopters.
Ukraine did not have *dedicated* anti-air teams using shoulder launched missiles - to accompany assault troops.
Ukraine troops would approach Russian positions, close enough to be in contact (combat) with Russians, and along comes a Russian helicopter at low altitude.
Ukraine troops could not adjust, while being fired upon from a nearby trench, and fire an anti-air missile at the helo.
There was no position, a bit further back (200 - 300 meters) from the assault position, and thus, not being in contact, where a Ukraine anti-air, shoulder-launched team could focus upon the Russian helicopter.
The helo also reporting Ukraine assault positions to Russian artillery.
Russia lost a lot of helicopters and crews, but Russia stopped the Ukraine assaults in enough places, to significantly dampen Ukraine assault gains.
Meanwhile, the “military ambulance” situation for Ukraine, was a circus. Medical care for Ukraine troops, good, but transport significantly delayed - re situations where drivers and wounded do not speak the same language.
Not the case everywhere, but definitely in the areas of the front where Ukraine hoped to penetrate and advance toward Mariupol and Crimea.
Russia has advantage in artillery ammo supply and troops supply.
Ukraine has advantage in creativity and ingenuity.
But, Russia does learn - studying Ukraine’s wins.
And, Ukraine suffers by not having the resources to deal with what Ukraine learns about Russian successes.
IMHO
2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive
George Washington wouldn't have done the counteroffensive. Instead, he would have focused on Crimea but in form of guerilla warfare. The Ukrainians have been doing that and that's effective. And George Washington would have done more to launch attacks into Belgorod which means that the war is going to impact the civilians in Russia.