Ukraine Weekly Update 16th February 2024

I’m finding it hard to single out an event or a piece of news that stands out as the most important of the week. Of course, people who move in different circles may be able to point to something. The horrors continue in Gaza - so much so that I can’t read about them for the moment - need a rest. The Houthis are still not vanquished and the risk of escalation in the Middle East is about the same as last week, in my humble opinion. The Scary Narrative has probably been less successful than the West hoped for and there has been a backlash inspired by realism. The comedy that is American party politics is gaining more and more laughs. Biden is too old and dotty to be convicted in a court but is well able to run the ‘free world’. Perhaps the most hilarious prospect is that of Kamala Harris as leader of this ‘free world’. Did I honestly just say that!

The farmers of Europe continue to fulfil their unlikely role as the rising proletariat and we are all grateful for the hope they inspire. The pouring of manure on the Ukrainian embassy was my highlight of the week (see below).

In Ukraine, the political upheavals that some anticipated following the sacking of Zaluzhny have not materialised and the General himself has stayed reasonably quiet. But I suppose he won’t mind that Syrsky will carry the can for the inevitable collapse of Avdeevka which is happening in real time on the Telegram Channels.

I get the sense that the Russians are now gaining momentum but I appreciate that the journey to total victory will be a long and bloody one. The Germans lost as early as February 1943 at Stalingrad but they didn’t capitulate until April 1945: more than two years later. However, the distance between Stalingrad and Berlin is 1723 miles whereas the distance between Bakhmut (Artemovsk) and Kiev is 447 miles.

Image result for tucker carlson and putin images It seems that the ‘interview of the century’ attracted 166 million ‘X’ viewers on the first day alone. But the EU was not at all pleased. Some officials have called for a travel ban on Tucker as a ‘mouthpiece’ for Putin and Donald Trump - though I have no idea why Trump was mentioned. Former MEP, Luis Garicano said: ‘‘He is no longer a reporter, but a propagandist for the most disgusting regime on European soil and the one that is most dangerous to our peace and security". I can think of lots of candidates for most disgusting regime on European territory, including the EU itself and Ukraine, but Russia is definitely not among them. NATO has undermined peace and security through its expansion in Europe and its arming of Ukraine. Westerners created this storm and now they are complaining that it’s raining. Boris Johnson called Tucker a ‘traitor’ for giving ‘the dictator’ a voice - according to RT . He also denied that he had anything to do with the collapse of talks in Istanbul and rolled out the obligatory comparisons with the Nazis and the nonsense claims of Russian rapes, tortures and the blowing up of kindergartens. Boris is such a drama queen.

The city of Mariupol. File photo - Sputnik International, 1920, 13.02.2024 Mariupol Experts investigating Western backed laboratories in Mariupol have uncovered documents in the basement of a psychiatric hospital indicating that Russians and Ukrainian patients (including infants) were injected with substances as part of a bio-warfare program that targeted Slavic DNA. Such practices are outlawed in the West and could constitute crimes against humanity. Sputnik has the full story here.

Infiltrators | Wookieepedia | FANDOM powered by Wikia Not much praise is heaped upon the Russian hackers who are doing their bit for the war effort - so I thought I should give them some space. I saw this report from the Two Majors that may be of interest to some:

Russian cyber fighters from Just Evil (https://t.me/WeJustEvil) (ex-Killnet) and Anonymus-Sudan knocked out the Internet in Poland, the attack also affected EU countries, interfering with assistance to Ukraine - details

▪️The results of the attack bore great fruit, bringing down the largest provider in Poland.

▪️Our hackers seek to attack the enemy’s infrastructure, disrupting the remote repair of NATO equipment in Ukraine and disrupting the logistics of supplies of Western equipment.

▪️Hackers used a new method of attacking the provider’s ecosystem, which caused large-scale disruptions throughout Poland. The attack was recorded in the NET BLOCKS (https://t.me/netblocks/807) monitoring system

▪️After the first wave of attacks, the Internet speed of the Polish provider Play dropped to 0.3 megabits per second and was constantly interrupted. Other EU countries were also partially affected. In Warsaw and other cities, bank and transport cards did not work.

The same hackers disabled 30,000 electric vehicles along with their ‘filling stations’ in Lithuania - that’ll teach them to go green.

Around half (47%) of 14 year old Ukrainian school children have said that they will leave the country once they have graduated.

Image result for volkstrum children images Volkstrum children Just look how young these new Ukrainian recruits are. It’s a bloody disgrace.

Image result for caesar assassination images Mark Sleboda had a very interesting chat (19 mins) with Danny Haiphong over the weekend exploring the possibility of a political collapse preceding a military one in Ukraine. Mark is well aware of the infighting that has been going on between factions supporting Zelenzky and those favouring Zaluznhy, who has remained reasonably quiet since his sacking. If elections are called in a couple of months Zaluzhny could challenge Zelensky politically but a coup or the assassination of either are also possibilities.

The Bill has passed its first reading but is not yet law. It appears that it will not become law until April and those recruited won’t be in service until July. The bill requires all tractors to be registered with the military which can call upon the owners to release them when required. This could paralyze the work of farmers.

There were some protests against Zaluzhny’s sacking in Kiev but they were small and consisted mainly of women (since men are in short supply).

Image result for zelensky images It seems to me that the reasons Z has given for sacking his commander are actually the reasons Ukraine is losing this war and these are mainly outside the commander’s control. They include:

There was no plan. But you can’t plan an inevitable defeat. Troops must have Western weapons - but that’s not within the control of the commander. Excessive numbers of personnel at HQ is not acceptable - i.e. too many trying to save their skins by staying in the rear. Zaluzhny probably played his part in that. Rotation systems must be improved - an acknowledgement that Ukraine is running out of troops. The quality of Military training must be improved - i.e. they are running out of troops - not Zaluzhny’s fault. You can read more here.

True to his word, Zelensky has replaced commanders at different levels in the military establishment. You can read some detail here.

Oleksandr Syrsky, General 200, the Butcher General Syrsky’s is being called General 200 after the military category ‘cargo 200’ (i.e. killed in action) because he has presided over so many of these. I’m not sure if people are also calling him the butcher of Bakhmut but he has certainly earned the epithet as everyone knows. Syrsky was born in Russia’s Vladimir region in 1965 and was previously commander of ground forces in Ukraine. He now has overall command. It appears that he is universally disliked among the rank and file. Pravda provides more detail here. His parents and his son are Russian patriots and a bitter Oleksandr has called his father 'scum'. And there’s me thinking I’ve got family problems!

For some time, the mayor of Belgorod has been providing very detailed accounts of Ukrainian attacks on civilians. But I don’t believe people following the Update want this sort of detail so I will provide the abridged version. It seems that many villages in Belgorod suffered heavy mortar and shell fire. Some damage was caused to cars, houses, garages and agricultural equipment but most villages escaped this. There were no casualties. You can view the full report here.

A multi-story residential building in Gorlovka was hit by shells overnight killing one and injuring several others.

Attacks on the DPR have declined recently from 100 down to 5 shells per day and there have been no casualties. This could be a consequence of shell shortages along with the disruption caused by the Russian assault on Avdeevka. Drones and mortar shells attacked various villages in Belgorod but very little damage was caused and there no casualties. Belgorod’s governor gave this report for the 11th Feb.

Several villages came under attack in Belgorod causing some damage but no casualties. In the DPR, two civilians were injured by Ukrainian strikes. The Mayor of Belgorod gave this report.

During the night, 9 UAVs were intercepted and destroyed over the territories of Belgorod (2 UAVs) and Voronezh (1 UAV), as well as over the Black Sea (6 UAVs). In the evening, a UAV was shot down over the Bryansk region. Shelling continues in the Belgorod region. In Donetsk (DPR), a civilian born in 1963 was killed and a man born in 1956 was wounded as a result of an AFU airdrop from a UAV.

Fourteen RM-70 ‘Vampire’ MLRS rockets were destroyed above Belgorod overnight but some managed to get through damaging residential buildings, cars fences and so on. But unfortunately the attacks also killed up to nine civilians (including a baby and a teenager) and wounded twenty others.

Ukrainian naval drones attempted to attack civilian shipping in the north western section of the Black Sea. The attacks were repelled by patrol boats, aviation and electronic warfare.

The Ukrainians apparently landed some ‘sea drone’ hits on the landing ship ‘Caesar Kunikov’ in the Black Sea causing it to keel over according to the Two Majors. The crew was evacuated safely. A later report claimed the ship had been sunk but this could be false news according to another report . A Western RQ-4B observation drone was involved in directing the attack. The Russians may respond by sacking the admiral of the Black Sea fleet, so it is rumoured.

…two UAVs were shot down 70 km south of Yalta, and three more were destroyed two hours later 6 km south of Feodosia - all five by Su-30SM fighters. The latter were suppressed by electronic warfare equipment as they approached Anapa. The drones fell into the water 12 km from the city.

About the White Stork project and the introduction of AI into combat systems Russian Missile/Drone Attacks

Loud explosions were heard in the industrial zone in Kharkov where a fuel storage facility was set ablaze.

Geraniums were reported over Kiev, Vinnitsa, Krivoy Rog, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Odessa and Poltava. Strong explosions occurred in Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Poltava, Kremenchug, Odessa, Cherkassy, Zhitomer and Ochakov. It was a busy night, according to Slavyangrad.

Geraniums damaged an electric substation in Dnepropetrovsk overnight, according to Slavyangrad. In Lyubotin (Kharkov) the command post of a territorial unit situated in a college building was hit. Ukrainian reserves stationed at Pavlograd and Pokrovsk came under attack and many were destroyed. A military base in Voznesensk (Nikolaev) was also destroyed. The Russians probably know that Syrsky intends to reinforce Avdeevka. Kiev and Odessa were also attacked. Among the targets hit were port facilities in Odessa, an oil depot and a military factory in Nikolaev and a train station in Kirivograd including train loads of military equipment.

A training camp for troops was attacked in the town of Selidovo (west of Avdeevka) with Iskander and other missiles. Preliminary reports indicate that the 3rd Azov assault brigade was hit on its way to reinforce Avdeevka and that casualties could be in excess of 1000 people. But General Syrsky will be attempting to ensure that the true figures are never revealed. It is thought that 1500 troops were at the camp when it was hit. South Front estimates 500 dead and 700 wounded according to its sources. The Military Chronicle estimates only several dozen dead and several hundreds wounded.

Kiev Major Klitschko reported that the city came under attack overnight. Starokonstantinovka airfield was attacked by missiles while Zaporozhye was attacked by Geraniums. Lvov was also attacked along with Kalush (Ivano-Frankovsk oblast) - according to Slavyangrad. In Lvov ‘an object containing enemy officers was hit’. Infrastructure facilities in Dnepropetrovsk were also attacked. Kiev, Lvov, Lutsk, Vinnitsa, Mirgorod, Dnepropetrovsk, and Krivoy Rog, as well as targets in the Zaporozhye and Khmelnytsky regions, were hit by ballistic missiles.

Our Aerospace Forces hit military facilities in Ukraine during the night. Deployment points in Lvov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Chernigov region, and ammo depots in Poltava region came under attack. In Kiev, explosions occurred at an UAV production plant. New attacks on the Starokonstantinov airfield, which began to be restored after previous attacks.

Ukrainian drones were intercepted in the Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Nizhny Novgorod regions, as well as south of the Crimean Peninsula. Once again, the enemy targeted the oil refining industry.

An oil depot in the Kursk region was attacked causing a fire. There were no casualties.

The Voronezh region was attacked and an oil facility was targeted. This time the drones were destroyed before they could cause damage.

w/e 2nd Feb 6230 Casualties killed and wounded: Equipment losses 356 (including 11 motor boats)

w/e 9th Feb 6030 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 257 (including 7 boats).

I have no idea why the Russian MoD has presented the figures in such a way that makes like for like comparison difficult - but there you go. It is clear that losses in manpower and equipment, especially, have risen considerably this week.

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Subscribe I’m finding it hard to single out an event or a piece of news that stands out as the most important of the week. Of course, people who move in different circles may be able to point to something. The horrors continue in Gaza - so much so that I can’t read about them for the moment - need a rest. The Houthis are still not vanquished and the risk of escalation in the Middle East is about the same as last week, in my humble opinion. The Scary Narrative has probably been less successful than the West hoped for and there has been a backlash inspired by realism. The comedy that is American party politics is gaining more and more laughs. Biden is too old and dotty to be convicted in a court but is well able to run the ‘free world’. Perhaps the most hilarious prospect is that of Kamala Harris as leader of this ‘free world’. Did I honestly just say that!