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To: GOPJ
Property "value", especially in large cities, is going to be a wild guess for a real long time. In the next few years, most of the commercial leases entered into pre-lockdowns will be coming up for renewal. Will tenants be willing to pay higher per-square rates than they have been, even if they reduce the footage required by 25-75% ?

The property owners will be writing down asset values, which will reduce their federal and state income tax liability, and will prompt more appeals of real estate tax assessments to lower that tax liability.

And all it takes is one short judge with an agenda to show off how tough he is to impose fines and penalties if/when a dispute becomes a law suit or criminal trial.

As long as the national debt continues to be an imaginary number and nobody expects anybody to pay it off or pay attention to it, the crisis can be ignored. If the printing press breaks, all (****) will break loose.

105 posted on 02/18/2024 8:25:43 AM PST by Bernard ("It ain't that there are too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right.” Twain)
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To: Bernard

Great stuff Bernard it seems no one has a firm grip on where the economy is headed as many say interest rates will rise as fall. So no one knows.


108 posted on 02/18/2024 8:35:59 AM PST by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT))
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To: Bernard
The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says

A recession is likely to hit the US economy in 2024, a new economic model highlighted by the economist David Rosenberg suggests.

The economic indicator, which Rosenberg calls the "full model," suggests there's an 85% chance of a recession striking within the next 12 months.

That's the model's highest reading since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

The model is based on a working National Bureau of Economic Research paper and consists of financial conditions indexes, the debt-service ratio, foreign term spreads, and the level of the yield curve.

Rosenberg said this economic model had "superiority" over other models due to its history of providing a timely warning of recessions without firing any false signals since 1999.

He noted that in early 2023 this model suggested only a 12% chance of a recession — while the yield-curve indicator said the odds of a recession were 50% at the time.

111 posted on 02/18/2024 8:46:26 AM PST by kabar
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