Posted on 02/16/2024 5:30:03 PM PST by Kazan
The Book of Proverbs, Chapter 26, contains this invaluable insight: “As dogs return to their vomit, so fools repeat their folly. You see those who are wise in their own eyes? There is more hope for fools than for them.” Invaluable because, in connection with the Russia-Ukraine War, the passage powerfully illuminates the current debate about Ukraine’s future strategic prospects.
The past few months have witnessed the dog returning to its vomit in the form of any number of efforts to once again make the case that Ukraine still has a path to total victory in its war against Russia. In professional journals, on influential websites and across the full spectrum of media outlets, observers, analysts and pundits alike continue to inform us that, yes, there is a way for Ukraine to prevail over Russia, expelling the latter from all of its territory, including Crimea.
One might claim that these arguments are being advanced because the facts on the ground warrant them; because the shifting geopolitical and battlefield realities clearly indicate that the military balance is tipping in Ukraine’s favor. As Ukraine acquires more weapons (and more sophisticated weapons), it will inevitably achieve the kind of tactical advantages that will propel it first to operational and then to strategic breakthroughs, culminating in total victory. All that’s required is one more mobilization of Ukrainian youth, one more tranche of Western financial aid, one more delivery of American, French or British wonder weapons.
But the strategic, operational and tactical realities of the war simply don’t support any version of this argument. Ukraine is not prevailing at the tactical level — if anything, Russia’s advantage at there is growing rather than diminishing, as Russia outpaces Ukraine in adapting to the evolving realities of the battlefield. The net result? Russia not only remains capable of sustaining the kind of defense-in-depth that has completely frustrated all Ukrainian offensive efforts, but is increasingly able to mount successful offensives in places like Avdiivka.
In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality. So why are we seeing arguments about an ultimate Ukrainian battlefield triumph, in the face of all the devastatingly contradictory evidence?
Well, applying Occam’s razor — the principle that “other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones” — I would suggest that the delusional belief that there is a pathway to total victory for Ukraine is based less on evolving military or geopolitical realities than on a simple psychological dynamic, one best summed up in the concept of “commitment escalation.”
According to this concept, individuals or groups sometimes exhibit a tendency to persist with a failing argument, even as that argument becomes increasingly untenable in light of the facts. This behavior is marked above all by an adherence to prior commitments — sunk costs, as the economists might put it — regardless of their present plausibility or rationality. It is a psychological dysfunction.
Applying this concept to Ukraine explains the delusional belief that despite all of Ukraine’s devastating defeats and strategic setbacks, victory is just around the corner. Those who committed publicly to the view that Ukraine was destined to inflict a decisive defeat on Russia during the much-heralded but ultimately failed spring/summer “counteroffensive” in 2023 have irrationally doubled down on that public commitment. They have, in other words, escalated their commitment even as the facts on the ground dictate that this faith in Ukraine’s ultimate total victory is simply baseless, and that a rational person would adjust their views in light of those facts.
Put slightly differently, the more dire Ukraine’s strategic prospects have become, the more these true believers have felt compelled to concoct imagined pathways to total Ukrainian victory — despite the increasingly incontrovertible evidence that no such pathway exists.
And so, like the proverbial dog returning to its vomit, those observers who originally committed to the “Ukraine will prevail” thesis continue to return to their delusion — ever more manically expressed — that there is a pathway to total victory for Kyiv. But there isn’t. And the sooner policymakers and influencers on both sides of the Atlantic grasp this, the sooner we can get to a negotiated cessation of hostilities that stems, at least for the moment, the obscene carnage that has come to define this war.
And, as Romans 4:18 of the Christian Scripture would have it, we must “hope against hope” that this epiphany comes sooner rather than later.
Well you may as well get used to the idea of Chinese century with America reduced to a client state.
Now tell us exactly how you really feel.
You racist.
Be careful. Be very careful.
Nobody wants to hear that this was instigated by the likes of Biden, McCain, and Nueland.
Just more "democracy spreading" that our corrupt government has been doing for 50 years.
You support genocide against anyone of Russian descent?
Is this personal? Are a relative someone that served in the Third Reich?
Well, maybe you should, because the moment countries around the world realise American security guarantees are worth fk all, there will be a rush for nuclear proliferation. Taiwan will develop nukes, they already have a nuclear industry and access to uranium and the technical knowhow for something that has been around for 80 years isnt hard to generate. Same with Japan.
Israel already has nukes, and will use them if they have no faith in either their conventional forces or backing from the rest of the world will prevent them from being over run.
But even more concerning is the Arab states acquiring nuclear weapons, along with Iran, countries that are infested with fanatics of a millenarian death cult. America cannot simply hide behind the oceans and think that world events wont affect the US because a nuclear war, something that is far more likely to happen if nuclear proliferation is not held in check by American security guarantees, will most assuredly affect the US.
“Realise” “fk all”
You’re not American. Piss off.
That’s what Putin said. That’s what the chief Uke negotiator said.
And here is what Angela Merkel said in 2022.
Reuters
December 9, 2022 8:17 AM CST
Updated a year ago
[excerpt]
In an interview published in Germany's Zeit magazine on Wednesday, former German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the Minsk agreements had been an attempt to "give Ukraine time" to build up its defences.Speaking on Friday at a news conference in Kyrgyzstan, Putin said he was "disappointed" by Merkel's comments.
Some people just can’t handle the truth. Ukraine can’t defeat Russia no matter how many weapons we send them. It is immoral to continue to prolong this proxy war. It is also fiscally irresponsible to continue to borrow huge amounts of money to send to Ukraine. And the black hole will require more and more money, including rebuilding Ukraine, which was one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe before the war.
The domino theory seems to be alive and well.
I think all know that this isn’t about a win rather to maintain all the avenue roads of funds/revenue now and in the future traveling between International leaders/countries into and out of the Ukrainian washing machine into theirs.......
So you’ve sunk to making the war profiteering case for continued support of Ukraine. Good job.
Should be obvious to anyone with half a brain.
The Ukraine was full of smart people until they believed a republican president and gave away all the nukes.
“delivery of American, French, or British wonder weapons”,
“these true believers have felt compelled to concoct imagined pathways to total Ukrainian victory”.
Sounds like the same discussions that were taking place in a certain Berlin Bunker in early April 1945.
Guess we will just have to wait and see if the script stays the same.
Avdiivka HAS FALLEN | Syrsky ADMITS DEFEAT | Complete Withdrawal Announced | Russian Victory
by Weeb Union
17FEB2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOiGkk4O18c&ab_channel=WeebUnion
Destroying Red Square and the Kremlin is genocide?
More like removing urban blight.
Destroying Red Square and the Kremlin is racism?
Really.
What ‘race’ are these symbols of terror and oppression?
No, my credibility hinges on honoring our wager.
And the month isn’t over. Putin can fall and die very suddenly.
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