What would it take happening to Russia to make it withdraw offensive forces and be preoccupied elsewhere instead?
“What would it take happening to Russia to make it withdraw offensive forces and be preoccupied elsewhere instead?”
My own preference? That Putin dies (by whatever cause) and his replacement puts an immediate end to the war.
While I think this is likely it is also shaping up that China is seeing Russia’s weakness and is starting to look at recapturing Siberia from Russia.
Unlike an attack on Taiwan there would be no repercussions from the West if China invested the effort to seize territory that used to be theirs anyway.
In the event of such an invasion by China the Russians would have no choice but to end the war in Ukraine and fight the Chinese or else abandon Siberia to the Chinese.
Either way, Russia would be skunked.