Ukraine Weekly Update 9th February 2024

This week has been noteworthy for the protracted sacking of Valeri Zaluzhny and the appointment of Oleksandr Syrsky in his stead. Some were even speculating that it wouldn’t happen at all. But it did. Meanwhile, on the battlefronts of Ukraine, Russian pressure is intensifying, Avdeevka is close to collapse while Ukrainian shortages in men and materiel are becoming more and more evident. The Ukrainian grunt is suffering, as I will discuss below. Ukraine has committed yet another massive terrorist attack on civilians at a bakery in Lisichansk, killing 28 people and the Kremlin will take the matter up with the UN. In the Middle East, the Gaza ceasefire I reported to be close in my previous update still hasn’t materialised and the Houthis continue to pose a threat to shipping in the Red Sea. The risk of escalation into Lebanon and beyond is very real. In the US, the funding saga continues as one funding Bill is defeated only to be replaced by another. At the time of writing, no money from the US is flowing (officially) to Ukraine but that could change soon. Trump continues to win primaries and is surging ahead of Sleepy Joe in opinion polls. Finally, Tucker Carlson (who I have been following for about six years) has interviewed Vladimir Putin and has been roundly condemned by most Westerners for doing so. It’s been quite an interesting week really.

Soviet soldiers are welcomed as liberators by the people of Stalingrad. - Sputnik International Russian soldiers with the citizens of Stalingrad. On the 2nd February, the Russians commemorated the end of the 1942/3 Stalingrad campaign. The battle was one of the bloodiest in history and is considered to have been a pivotal ‘turning point’ of World War Two. Many citizens stayed in the city throughout the battle which lasted for a little over five months.1 Pravda provides more detail and photos here.

Tucker Carlson visited Moscow this week to interview President Putin. Even before the interview was published Carlson faced sanctions from the EU, according to this. He has also suffered the customary accusation of being Putin’s mouth piece - how original! More seriously, however, he has been added to Ukraine’s ‘kill list’.

Here’s a link to Tucker’s interview with Putin: The Vladimir Putin Interview (tuckercarlson.com) (2 hrs). Putin did not say anything that we have not heard from him before but through Carlson he will reach more people throughout the world. You can read the main takeaways from the interview here or here. Putin gave us a history lesson about Russia and Ukraine going back centuries and explained how the CIA backed Maidan Coup, NATO’s eastward expansion, the failure of Ukraine to adhere to the Minsk agreements and the very real military threat from Ukraine - forced Russia to embark on the SMO two years ago. He also made it clear that Russia does not intend to invade other countries in Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny with an award. File photo. - Sputnik International, 1920, 02.02.2024 Seymour Hersh, the veteran US journalist, believes that Z wanted to sack Zaluzhny because he announced a ‘stalemate’ on the battlefronts and because he was suspected of engaging in secret talks with the West to secure a ceasefire/negotiated settlement to the conflict, according to RT. According to Scott Ritter, Zaluzhny has aligned himself politically with the Right Sector which is inspired by Bandera and banned in Russia. Interviewed by an Italian TV channel, Z admitted that the fronts have become stagnant due to problems with arms deliveries. When questioned about Zaluzhny, he said that he wished to replace administration and management personnel in all institutions not just the military:

We need a reset and a new start <...>. This concerns not one person [i.e. Zaluzhny], but a group of managers and not only in the military sector.

But the sacking was delayed because Zaluzhny would not accept his commander’s orders, so it appears. On February 7th, South Front reported that Zaluzhny could be attempting to obtain support from fellow Nazis in the army so that he can challenge the forces that remain loyal to Zelensky. According to Larry Johnson, writing for RT, Zaluzhny has been sparing Nazi units such as AZOV and Kraken from front line service while less ‘prestigious’ forces have been employed as ‘cannon fodder’. He is making sure that his Nazi supporters are not killed.

On February 8th, RT reported that according to Ukrainska Pravda, Zaluzhny has not yet been sacked due to concerns expressed by the security forces (SBU) that the move could lead to civil unrest including riots.

But then, finally, late on the 8th February Zaluzhny was sacked and replaced by Syrsky.

For many, it was not a popular choice since many remember the futility of his defence of Bakhmut which killed thousands of Ukrainians for absolutely no reward.

If you would like some in depth exposition and analysis of this change check out Simplicius. b also covers the sacking on the MoA (9th February).

Apparently, the new Ukraine mobilization Bill was passed on first reading by RADA on February 7th. I’ll report on the Bill next week once I have obtained more detail.

It is a sign of desperation when police officers are sent to the front due to manpower shortages but that is happening right now in Ukraine. And it is so, so sad to watch a society decay in the way Ukraine has due to the demands of a war that any sane person would have known that the nation could not win.

A police officer holds his daughter after an oath-taking ceremony, which started up the work of a new police patrol service, part of the Interior Ministry reform initiated by Ukrainian authorities, in Kiev, Ukraine To This:

A priest blesses newly-mobilized recruits in front of a military registration office before they leave for military units, in Kiev, Ukraine, Thursday, Jan.29, 2015 - Sputnik International, 1920, 14.08.2023 To This:

Dima of the Military Summary channel believes that NATO troops could take their place in providing policing.

Pravda is reporting that NATO troops from the UK, Finland, Romania, Sweden and Poland will be sent to the right (west) bank of the Dnieper on the border with Belarus in order to free up Ukrainian troops for the front. On December 15 2023, former Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Prystaiko announced a similar plan. This is one of those ‘will they, won’t they’ stories that may or may not come true.

The Guardian published an article recently in which it showed Ukrainian prisoners - i.e. pro-Russian citizens who were labeled as “collaborators”.

One man who was arrested had an “Orc”2 tattoo tattooed on his forehead: he was tortured by the Zelensky regime.

A 30-year-old resident of Chasov Yar was thrown into prison for 15 years along with her 2-year-old daughter. She is terrified that her daughter will be taken away when she reaches 3 years of age.

A 34-year-old teacher from Slavyansk is serving time for trying to escape to his friends in Crimea. Some were arrested for organizing a referendum in Kherson.

A 57-year-old resident of Artemovsk Yuri Tsybulsky explained to the British: “ My parents raised me to fight fascism, and here is fascism’’.

Image result for stealing from cookie jar cartoon Cookie thief strikes again According to Zero Hedge:

A recent audit found that $1 billion of the $1.7 billion, or 59% ‘in enhanced end-use monitoring designated weapons provided to Ukraine as of June 2023 are “delinquent,” meaning they can’t be accounted for in inventory reports.

The life of any soldier in this conflict is hard but maybe it is harder on the Ukrainians than the Russians. According to German newspaper, Spiegel, the Ukrainians are short of men and materiel and are facing a vastly superior enemy force, which we all know. Sometimes they are stuck in cold and dirty trenches alongside the bodies of their dead comrades because the intensity of the shelling does not permit them to be moved and buried. The shortage of manpower places extra demands on the soldiers, who have to work harder. And they are tired. Companies are sometimes quickly reduced from 100 to 20 men. One Ukrainian soldiers said that 70% of his battalion was lost in just 14 days. The quality of troop replacements is not good, to say the least. Most have not received adequate training and some are struggling alcoholics too drunk to dig a trench. The Washington Post reports on the troop shortages here. In addition, the brutality of forced mobilisation affects the quality of troops delivered, reluctantly, to the front lines. Only those with money can avoid conscription in this corrupt country. On top of all this, their commander has just been sacked.

One Ukrainian soldier revealed the grimmer that grim reality of the front to a very naive female reporter:

I can’t be sure that this is authentic but it is true that Ukrainian manhood has been frittered away over the past two years for absolutely nothing.

If you are interested in reading or listening to testimonies from Ukrainian POWs check out South Front’s archive.

Bernhard (b) from the MoA, who once served in the military, has produced an interesting piece on the shortage of officers in the Ukrainian Army (See MoA 6th February). He notes that one battalion of the 47th Mechanised Brigade has a Lieutenant as its deputy commander when usually a Major fulfills this role. I’ve heard that Simplicius, or was it Dima, is saying that non-commissioned officers are running the show in place of Lieutenants and Captains. It is quite clear that there is a shortage of officers and that in consequence units cannot function adequately. b concluded that:

The Ukrainian army is lacking soldiers and munitions. It is lacking the officers to train and lead them. The Ukrainian state does not have the money to conscript and equip more soldiers. It does not have the officer corp needed to train new soldiers. It does not have the factories needed to produce weapons and munitions. It is high time for Ukraine to give up this unequal fight and to save the lives of those soldiers who are still living. It is high time for Zelenski (and Zaluzny and others) to leave.

M-120 Rak - This could be the culprit. Ukrainian soldiers also have to deal with inadequate equipment. Outdated Polish made self-propelled mortars, for example, have to be repaired after each trip and the Ukrainians do not have enough ammunition to feed them.

Ukraine has frontline soldier shortage – WaPo On February Sputnik reported that according to a Ukrainian officer: ‘You can feel that people are morally and physically exhausted’. Battlefield losses, Russian superiority, lack of manpower and ammunition are all contributing to the general malaise.

On top of all this, the prognosis among commentators is not good. Back in December, Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), gave the following forecast:

Ukraine has already lost the ability to carry out offensives, by early spring it will be difficult for the AFU to carry out even local counterattacks, more damage will be caused as a result of [Russian Aerospace Forces] airstrikes. By the beginning of summer, it will be difficult for Ukrainian troops to contain the attacks of the Russian Armed Forces, and as a result, the front will collapse, followed by complete collapse.”

To add insult to injury, the US Senate has blocked the latest Bill that would have provided aid to Ukraine. But as I write another Bill that would provide Ukraine with $60 billions and Israel with $14 billion is under consideration, according to Tass. From a Ukrainian point of view, this is a glimmer of hope I suppose but their best option is negotiation.

On February 3rd, the Ukrainians shelled a bakery in Lisichansk (Lugansk). A report from Tass indicated that 28 people have died. A pregnant woman and her five year old child were among the victims. February 4th has been designated a day of mourning for the victims killed the previous day. This is the third large terrorist attack committed by Ukraine in a matter of weeks and it has been strongly condemned by the Kremlin.

In Gorlovka, two civilians were wounded and in Belgorod region 2 drones were shot down.

The Governor of Belgorod has reported that many villages have come under fire from artillery shells and drones overnight. Some damage was inflicted on houses, cars, power lines and an excavator. The village of Grafovka also suffered mortar fire but there were no casualties. The Two Majors provides more detail here.

In Belgorod, Rostov and Volgograd regions, 8 drones were shot down, one of them caused a fire on the territory of the Volgograd Refinery. Our refineries, obviously poorly covered by electronic warfare, became a key target of the AFU.

At night, 4 AFU UAVs were destroyed over the #Bryansk region. In the Belgorod region, the village of Demidovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, the village of Stary Khutor in the Valuysky urban district were shelled by kamikaze drones. In Donetsk and Gorlovka (DPR), 4 civilians were injured as a result of Nazi shelling.

At night in the Belgorod region, the city of Gubkin was attacked by UAVs, as a result of a fall with detonation, 4 private residential households were damaged. In the afternoon, the Mukhin farm of the Shebekinsky urban district came under fire from the AFU. An AFU UAV was intercepted over the territory of the Bryansk region. Due to the Nazi shelling of the DPR civilian population, in the settlement of Komsomolsky (Volnovakha district) a woman born in 1962 died.

Here is a more detailed account of the Belgorod attacks provided by the governor.

AFU shelling on the border in the Bryansk region wounded our border guards, one of them was killed. In Donetsk, a city bus was attacked by a drone, without casualties. In Belgorod, 7 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down.

Belgorod was attacked again overnight and the governor reported that two casualties with shrapnel wounds were taken to hospital. Ten cars were also damaged in a parking lot.

According to the Two Majors, Belgorod city and Belgorod region came under heavy shelling overnight wounding several civilians. Another two civilians were injured by shelling in Shebekino and the village of Grayvoron was attacked by a kamikaze drone. In the DPR, six civilians were injured by shelling. A more detailed report can be found here.

On the evening of the 8th, Belgorod came under attack and there were casualties. One man had his arms and legs blown off and is obviously in a serious condition but still alive as I write. Twelve MLRS shells were destroyed over Belgorod but four more people were injured by shrapnel. Damage was also caused to houses, overhead electric cables and cars. On the evening of the 8th, twelve air targets were shot down on their approach to Belgorod and 9 private households were damaged in the suburbs. In the DPR, four civilians were injured in Gorlovka, Verkhnetoretskoye, Vladimirovka and Donetsk as a result of shelling.

It appears that the West may fly its F-16s from Romania over Moldova to attack the Russians in Ukraine. Some commentators believe that if this happens, airfields in Romania would become legitimate targets for Russia’s air forces - according to Pravda.

Russia's Pantsir-S air defense system. File photo - Sputnik International, 1920, 04.02.2024 Russia’s very effective Pantsir air defence system. You can read more here. Russian Missile/Drone Attacks

I should point out that drone and missiles strikes on Ukraine’s rear areas are carried out every day but are not necessarily reported through the sources available to me.

The Russian army continues to strike critical enemy infrastructure on a daily basis. Kamikaze drones "Geran-2" have targeted two transformer substations in Krivoy Rog, resulting in the shutdown of power for 100 thousand consumers and industrial enterprises in the city. Another attack was carried out on an infrastructure facility in Kirovograd.

Fuel storage facilities and steel production works were targeted overnight in Krivoy Rog. The city produces about one third of the steel being used to construct Ukraine’s fortifications.

Our Army hit in Kharkov region a private hotel with two missiles, which housed up to 50 Ukrainian militants, presumably from the Kraken national formation.

Since 7 a.m., there has been a massive strike on Ukraine, as well as the latest strikes - this one is aimed at destroying military infrastructure. The missiles were launched from Tu-95ms, Tu-22 M3 and Su-34. Explosions are reported in the Cherkasy and Kirovohrad regions - "Ocean" operates there, where unmanned kamikaze boats are produced, which recently sank our combat boat. Also, a series of explosions in the Khmelnytskyi region, in Kharkiv and the Mykolaiv region. Arrivals are reported at the Yavororovsky training ground. Also under attack are Ship Cherry and Sabir.

According to Rybar, Kiev was attacked overnight causing electricity outages and water shortages. A gun barrel factory was hit in the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Malyshev tank plant in Kharkov came under attack.

The airfield at Ivano-Frankivsk (Lviv Region) was also attacked as a welcome to the F-16s that are due to arrive there sometime soonish. The shipyard at Nikolaev was also attacked.

Rybar reported a series of explosions in Kyiv, Novomoskovsk, Pavlograd, Drohobych, and other cities. In Kharkov, an impact was recorded at the Malyshev plant, which now specializes in repairing armored vehicles.

Using missile weapons of various types plus Gerani drones the Russians also attacked Lvov, Mirgorod, Poltava region, Dnepropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankovsk, Kirovograd and Nikolaev.

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) is a device that is attached to ‘dumb’ (or unguided) bomb transforming it into a ‘smart’ (guided) bomb. These have been used extensively in Avdeevka, especially, to great effect. b from the MoA has produced an interesting article explaining how they work and why they have been so effective (MoA, Ukraine Sitrep February 8th).

w/e 2nd Feb 6230 Casualties killed and wounded: Equipment losses 356 (including 11 motor boats)

w/e 9th Feb 6030 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 257 (including 7 boats).

UAV operators and old men are being sent into the city in an effort to prevent its capture by the Russians but the situation is hopeless. Rybar has more here. On the 8th February, Slavyangrad reported:

Russian troops are continuing a potent offensive operation, penetrating the city from the northeast and breaking through the enemy's defenses. They have effectively split the city in two, closing in on the main supply route of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

One Ukrainian soldier said: ‘The situation in the city of Avdeevka is deteriorating. The 'road of life' is only 700 meters away’. Some say the Russians are much closer than this to the ‘road of life’ (i.e. the main supply artery).

I’ve heard other reports suggesting that the Russians are cutting the city in half. Dima reported that the Starlink Service in the city has been jammed so that Ukrainian messages must be conveyed by old fashioned telephone wires.

“what a $hit show.”

ON STEROIDS!!

Bums me out that anyone is falling for this anymore.

And my ancestors are Ukrainians!

My Grandpa would be p.o.ed!! Major.

During the Bolshevik Revolution his parents were able to get him out of Kiev and into the US Army.

They later died in the Holodomor.

Now what we see is total corruption.

Maybe somethings never change.

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