Posted on 02/11/2024 3:05:05 AM PST by Tom Tetroxide
As Congress dithers about funding aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian military capabilities decline. This decline is gradual. Previously committed weapons, munitions, and supplies will keep some equipment flowing for months or even years. However, the effects of declining aid will be increasingly apparent on the battlefield. Ukraine is no longer able to conduct a counteroffensive. By February or March, it will have difficulty conducting local counterattacks, and by early summer, it will struggle to fend off Russian attacks. At some point, the front will collapse, and Russia will impose a harsh peace.
Q1: Why is military aid needed?
A1: Militaries in combat need a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies to replace those destroyed or used up in operations. For example, during its counteroffensive earlier this year, Ukraine was firing munitions at an extremely high rate, about 6,000 artillery rounds per day. Ukraine will not run out of ammunition, as some resupply will continue from U.S. and global sources. However, as the flow of ammunition declines, Ukraine will have to prioritize targets. Instead of firing at suspected enemy locations, it will only be able to fire at identified locations. Eventually, it will only be able to fire at the most dangerous targets, such as those that are shooting at Ukrainian forces.
Similarly, militaries lose equipment at a steady rate. Without replacements, units lose firepower. That means relying more on humans and suffering higher casualties.
(Excerpt) Read more at csis.org ...
For crying out loud, will someone please explain this to the Israelis before it’s too late?
Given developments since 2014, there is now no scenario in which Ukraine actually wins. It will be an economic basket case for generations.
Ukraine has failed to launch any significant counteroffensive. Period. No mattter what weapons training and intel support they were handed so far.
The victories Ukraine claims occurred when the Russians chose to withdraw. Other than retaining Kharkov, which the Russians pulled back when they were understrength, Ukraine failed to show any significant gains by offensives cheered on by the West.
The Kiev victory? A Russian withdrawal that came after Russia thought it had a peace agreement in Istanbul….scuttled then by Boris Johnson and Joe Biden.
Thd Kherson victory? The Russian withdrawal was a strategic decision to not engage the Ukes on the right bank of the Dnieper, but to strengthen defenses on the left bank ( the Surovikin lines) which held back any Uke advances in their spring counteroffensive and have chewed up tens of thousands of Ukrainians and prevented any significant Uke gains.
Now the West and Ukraine continue this delusionary path to another “ counteroffensive”….once we ( EU and US) give them another 100 Billion in aid to blow on weapons and corruption….and now they are angling for us to give them troops on the ground, too.
Oh and an Air Force of 40 yr old fighters prob manned by contract western pilots.
It’s too late. By the time the planned actions in Gaza are done, Israel will be a pariah state.
Most people in most nations are not going to want to hear about the Holocaust ever again.
The problem is the Biden crime family is in debt to the Ukrainians.
Hunter made 11,000,000 as a consultant to Burisma basically sharpening pencils and typing. He had no law experience in the Energy sector nor spoke the language. Plus how many 500,000 dollar “art” pieces did they buy from Hunter?
Then of course we have no idea how much money Sleepy Joe got from them as VP, off shore accounts, insider trading….
We’re not supporting Ukraine to help them win. Lots of graft, money laundering operations, bio labs and corruption to cover up or bury over there.
I know that. That’s why it’s so despicable. Hundreds of thousands of dead Ukes and the country as destroyed as the way we left Iraq. For one reason, as admitted by Uke peace negotiator, the war continued, to keep the two way flow of NATO graft going.
“dithers”, such an archaic word; kind of like archaic.
Enough of your trolling
Between the UK, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, and Sweden they can handle the cost of European defense.
******
Russia and Ukraine really are a European problem. First, Germany can quit buying Russian oil. That will put a huge dent in the Russian ability to act like a bully.
“The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, Then Collapse”
The Impact of CONTINUING Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, More Gradual Decline, US ELECTION, Then Collapse.
(either way, there’s no more weapons and printing more money will not kill more Ruzzians)
@RT_com
US has not demonstrated any readiness to actually engage in negotiations with Russia - Putin’s spokesperson
7:30 AM · Feb 11, 2024
It’s too late. By the time the planned actions in Gaza are done, Israel will be a pariah state.
Most people in most nations are not going to want to hear about the Holocaust ever again.
******
No one in any country gives two figs about “the Palestinian cause.”
“No doubt it would lead to Ukraine collapsing sooner rather than later after we throw a piece of the treasury down that money pit.”
...
The sooner the military collapses the better off average Ukrainians will be. Certain groups (left and right) who supported this war have blood on their hands. It’s my humble opinion that if an honest agreement had been reached and referendums held, this could have been avoided.
Instead, like schoolboys, we pushed both parties to fight.
But my biggest worry is the nuclear threat. If, during this collapse the Ukrainians detonate a long-hidden device on a Russian city, the Russians will hold us responsible and have no choice to retaliate. Against us.
A good part of the problem seems to be about what to do with Israel. They may need help, too & I believe they should be considered the major obligation of the two. This mess in Ukraine, while regrettable, has apparently already taken our
military reserve down lower than it should ever be. Right now seems a very bad time to have that happen.
The mutuality of NATO Alliance has quietly morphed over the decades into the singularity of the NATO Reliance with US’ wealthy EU partners relying on the US to do all the heavy lifting, militarily, monetarily, providing advanced intelligence and weaponry for their land war threats while they are useless to us in defense of our homeland which will come in the way of a tech air and missile attack, not a land war. As such, either it needs to be rewritten with member states required to form a joint standing military to defend Europe by a date certain and immediately required to up their country’s defense spending to 2% of GDP. Barring that, we should leave the Reliance. We don’t need to be paying child support for someone else’s baby while we are trying to raise our own.
Too bad for the Ukrainians. Did the Ukrainians think that the US, a country that goes out of its way to punish its own citizens with ethnic replacement and poverty, was going to treat them well? The reptiles threat rule America Reserve nothing but disdain and hatred.
And when your neighbor left to another neighborhood to rape, rob, and steal I am sure that you would say nothing. Glad that I don’t live need you Chad.
Buy yourself a rifle and ticket to Kyiv, Big Man, and show us how it’s done. Otherwise, STFU and leave me and my grandkids out of funding it.
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