“None of these factors are capable of improving”.
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Ironically, you are most likely correct. In the 2020 election, Trump received 46.8% of the popular vote, which is precisely what the current NBC poll shows. Trump is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. In the summer of 2023, an AP/IPSOS poll revealed that 53% of the electorate would never vote for Trump under any circumstances (also supported by the current NBC poll).
With the feeble and corrupt Biden tanking in job approval numbers, any formidable GOP nominee should be currently polling at 55% or higher (similar to Reagan over Carter in 1980).
Where does that leave things? Biden’s team is wholly invested in ramping up turnout among minority voters in certain swing states (MI, WI, PA, NV, GA and AZ). That’s where the election will be won or lost. Trump could possibly squeak out a win if enough uncommitted / independent voters in those states find him slightly less detestable than Biden. That’s his only path to victory. Calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” is certainly not endearing himself to moderate, suburban female voters at this point..
Using stolen election numbers to do demographic analysis is like using fish to count bicycles.
Don’t do it.
Trump’s numbers won’t change, 2020 -> 2024.
Bidens WILL. People will stay home. And in many places, they can’t mail it in, nor will there be ballots mailed to “them” on a silvered platter, like in 2020. The biggest wound for Biden is nobody is enthusiastic about him anymore, nor that enthusiastic about stopping Trump.
Millions of votes/ballots for Biden were a real anomaly due to bending laws for Covid.
Trump and Biden are two candidates for which, but for each other, would be unelectable - just like Hillary and Trump in 2016. Biden’s negatives were not nearly as high in 2020 as Hillary’s were in 2016. However, now Biden is just as unpopular. But Trump is no more popular.
Trump needs massive amounts of cash to air ads showing his accomplishments and compare / contrast his record with Biden’s to improve his own standing and cement Biden’s negatives. But so far it appears the base is going to once again sit on their behinds and keep their wallets closed, and it will be Biden and the Democrats who will again dominate the airwaves with our own candidates - including Trump himself - left twisting in the wind against an onslaught they are not able to fight back against. So many fully winnable races that were just tossed away because our candidates could not even begin to compete.