Global South on the rise but likely to make world order unpredictable

Nikkei Asia ^

[FarCenter]

TOKYO -- The pole of the world is shifting, though swingingly, from north to south due to the rise of emerging countries collectively called the Global South. The shift can upset conventional wisdom in the international community, but it is hardly smooth.

Senior government officials from the Group of Seven leading economies and other countries such as India and Turkey secretly gathered in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Dec. 16 last year for informal talks on a peace plan for the Ukraine war.

The plan was aimed at countering Russia, with participants supporting Ukraine's demand for an absolute withdrawal of Russian forces. During the meeting, however, emerging nations made a spate of calls for Ukraine to hold dialogues for peace with Russia. With Ukraine reacting sharply to them, the meeting ended in a chilly mood, according to sources familiar with the Riyadh gathering.

At another meeting in October, Turkey and other countries called for abiding by international law in the self-governing Palestinian territory of Gaza and criticized the U.S. and Europe. Emerging countries are growing more distrustful of the double standard of the U.S. and Europe that side with Israel while denouncing Russia for violating international human rights law.

Some 80 years have passed since the end of World War II in 1945. The world has enjoyed stability and prosperity under the United Nations and other postwar institutions set up mainly by victor countries. However, emerging nations are strengthening their say in place of the victors of WWII.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in an interview with Nikkei last year, "The credibility of the U.N. Security Council and its decision-making process will always be questioned if it continues to deny representation on a permanent basis to the world's largest democracy, as well as entire continents like Africa and Latin America."

India, together with Japan and Germany, has long sought to reform the U.N. Security Council. As a voice representing the Global South, India now criticizes the conventional order. There are three power changes behind India's confidence.

In 2023, India became the world's most populous country. According to U.N. data, the world had a population of 8 billion in 2022, up more than three times from 1950. Population in the Group of 77, a coalition of emerging countries other than China, has been increasing in particular and now accounts for some 60% of the world's population.

Economically, the world is also moving toward an era when emerging countries will play leading roles. India is forecast to surpass Japan in terms of gross domestic product in 2026. The Mitsubishi Research Institute estimates that the G77 will become bigger than the U.S. and China in GDP in around 2040.

The military balance is also starting to change. While the G7 accounted for some 70% of military expenditures in the world 30 years ago, the ratio dropped to around 50% in 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

[Regulator]

The only thing on the rise is their birth rate and inability to create stable, wealthy societies...so they plan to simply take over ours like hungry locusts.

[Organic Panic]

South of What? The equator? Anyone South is moving north to turn the civilized world in to one big turd world s hole. South America had it good with Argentina but the people are hopeless commies. Africa is Africa. We see how well the natives do when they are given the first world (Rhodesia, South Africa, etc.) within a year those countries reverted back to their African roots. Australia and New Zealand don’t have the resources to grow much so as long as ‘the north’ can control the invasion that is where the economic growth happens.