Low time VFR only pilot (no instrument rating) with almost no night flights...is flying at night over water with no light below and no distinct horizon line in hazy conditions. Spacial disorientation is a thing. “Occam’s Razor”.
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2010/july/pilot/10-mistakes-jfk-jr-made
https://www.aviationsafetymagazine.com/features/revisiting-jfk-jr/
You’re right! And Oswald as lone shooter killed JFK