Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 7, 2024...
- Russia continues conducting large-scale missile and drone strikes across Ukraine;
- Ukrainian forces are depleted after a defeated summer-fall offensive with the West unable to adequately replace their losses;
- The West is also unable to bolster Ukrainian air defense capabilities which are buckling under intense Russian strikes;
- In response, Ukraine seeks to focus on optics-centric strikes on Belgorod as well as conduct other symbolic retaliation strikes deep inside Russia;
- Western representatives have begun more vocally calling for the transfer of longer-range missiles and drones to Ukraine;
- Despite the ability of these weapons to strike deep within Russia, they do not and will not in the foreseeable future exist in large enough numbers to match let alone exceed Russian missile production;
Wat Novocherkassk doing?
The main use for longer range missiles for Ukraine is just what has been done so far - to push logistic systems (supply dumps, maintenance yards) and active airfields yet further away from the front, to hinder tactical/operational abilities.
Airfields are important. One of Russias major assets on the battlefield is the manned aircraft of the RuAF, which are constrained in strategic and interdiction roles by effective Uke air defense, but have still been effective on the front line. If these can be denied convenient airfields it is much harder to use them effectively.
The introduction of the short range cluster variant of ATACMS, for instance, has pushed the KA52 helos out of normal range of the front. Likewise Stormshadow has made Crimean airfields unusable for regular basing for fighterbombers. Both types can still stage to closer airfields, for refueling, from bases further away, but its very unsafe to stay very long. The Ukrainians seem to be on their way to doing the same for the airfields at Belgorod.
The next target desiderata for long range missiles, probably, are -
The Kerch bridge, which it seems is still not quite in range.
Airfields around Taganrog, to which it seems most of the RuAF tactical aircraft have moved.
All sorts of facilities around Rostov, which seems to now be the principal supply and HQ hub (used to be Belgorod, at the outset).