Posted on 01/06/2024 2:33:10 PM PST by delta7
Conventional ground warfare dead end is compounded by limited numbers of tanks as well as spare parts issues
A Leopard 2A4 tank with the addition of Russian ERA armor that still failed to protect it on the battlefield. Ukraine has been taking first generation ERA panels from Russian tanks and welding them onto Leopard tanks. The results are not good. Photo: Defense Mirror NATO has a huge problem that will take decades to overcome. Put most simply, the armor vehicles NATO has won’t survive in a firefight with the Russians, notwithstanding the fact that Russian armor is far from the best.
Russia has demonstrated in Ukraine that in conventional warfare it can knock out some of NATOs best tanks and decimate Western armored fighting vehicles like the US Bradley and the German Marder.
NATO does not have enough tanks, does not have sound logistics to support them, and faces significant problems coming up against modern Russian ground forces.
The Leopard tank has performed poorly, despite Ukrainian efforts to try and fix some of its many problems.
Even when it comes to the American M-1 Abrams tanks, Forbes reports the Ukrainians have not put it on the battlefield – probably because US advisors have told them it wouldn’t survive and the destruction of the Abrams would give the US a black eye.
So, instead, the Ukrainians have been urgently trying to “upgrade” the Abrams by gluing on Russian reactive armor and building cages on top of the tanks’ turrets to ward off Russian Lancet unmanned aerial vehicles.
The Germans, meanwhile, say that Ukraine no longer has any operational Leopard series 2 tanks; those that were broken down or salvaged from the battlefield have been sent off to Estonia for repairs.But Estonia does not have spare parts to fix them, so they are rusting in marshalling yards.
Modern tanks, like modern aircraft carriers, face serious challenges to survive in hostile environments.
Today tanks are vulnerable to anti-tank weapons, land mines including
air-launched mines, killer drones such as the Russian Lancet, helicopter and aircraft-launched missiles and bombs, and accurate artillery strikes. Anti-tank weapons today use tandem shaped-charge warheads designed to penetrate armor even where reactive armor appliques, known as explosive reactive armor (ERA) protect the tank.
I have not included the hand-held RPG-7 into the analysis since using them on a modern battlefield is a suicide mission. Western armies, of course, don’t have the RPG-7. These are well distributed to Russian clients and to terrorists. The Egyptians used them in the Yom Kippur war, but usually the operator was killed.
They use a shaped charge but not a tandem warhead configuration. The US equivalent is the precision shoulder-fired rocket launcher-1 (PRSL-1). It is not part of the regular US Army kit but is sometimes used by US Special Forces.
ERA are explosive panels that are put on tanks to defeat the impact of a tandem warhead weapon.
Neither the Abrams nor the Leopard has reactive armor (ERA) because the highly classified passive armor of the tank body (sometimes called Chobham armor) was supposed to be able to protect the tank from modern anti-tank weapons like the Russian 9M133 Kornet (Comet). Kornet uses a tandem HEAT warhead, where HEAT stands for High Explosive Anti Tank. It was designed to defeat explosive reactive armor.
Bogdan Voitsekhovsky The first ERA was developed by Soviet academician Bogdan Vjacheslavovich Voitsekhovsky (1922–1999) in 1949. However, early tests of Soviet armor showed that when a tank was hit equipped with the armor, all the ERA modules would explode, rendering the ERA ineffective.
Between 1967 and 1969 a German researcher, Manfred Held, working with the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), developed reactive armor that was used on Israeli tanks starting in the early 1980s and first proven effective in the 1982 Lebanon war.
Unlike the US, the UK and Germany, where Chobham armor (and its descendants) was available, Israel was not allowed access to advanced armor. Its Merkava tank, developed by the tank genius General Israel Tal, used spaced armor. ERA was vital for Israel in compensating against Russian threats.
Chobham armor is made up of layers of dissimilar materials including steel and polymers and is otherwise called composite armor. A T-80U Russian tank that was destroyed in the Ukraine war was fitted with composite armor similar to what is found in the Leopard and Abrams. The Russian armor was good at deflecting shape charge weapons. Anti-tank weapons use a shape charge to aid in penetrating thick steel plating. A shaped charge “focuses” the explosive blast, putting extreme heat and shock on the target.
1: Ballistic cap; 2: Air-filled cavity; 3: Conical liner; 4: Detonator; 5: Explosive; 6: Piezo-electric trigger Tank armor also has to be able to defeat cannonfire from opposing tanks. Modern tank rounds (in the west 105mm and 120mm and in Soviet-origin weapons, 115mm, 120mm and 125mm) use penetrator rods made of either tungsten carbide or depleted uranium (APFSDS or Armor Piercing Fin Stabilized Discarding Sabot shells). Reactive armor can be effective against APFSDS.
The Germans say they already have a new version of the Leopard, the 2A7V. Germany has also entered into a deal with Italy, Spain and Sweden to develop a successor tank to the Leopard. The new tank will have a 130mm tank gun, and advanced situational awareness (rather like Israel’s new Merkava 5 excepting the gun).
The US has also scrapped the latest upgrade version of the Abrams (known as SEP v4) and is now working on a different way to upgrade the Abrams tank.
Both Germany and the US realize that neither the Abrams nor the Leopard can survive on the modern battlefield.
Types of ERA
There are many different types of explosive reactive armor. The Russian ERA has evolved from Kontakt 1 to Kontakt V and its latest tanks have a type called Malachit. Information about Malachit is classified but it was designed to deal with the latest APFSDS tank cartridge called M829E4 (which has a depleted uranium penetrator). The problem for the Germans and the US is that the penetrating rods used in these cartridges are limited in length because the 120mm guns cannot use rounds with longer penetrators. That helps explain why the German future tank will have a 130mm gun, and the Abrams may also have to up-gun.
Beyond reactive armor
One of the innovations for tanks, pioneered by Israel, is called active protection. Using specialized radar sensors and explosively formed projectiles to defeat incoming threats, Israel has two systems (Trophy produced by Rafael and Iron Fist by Israel Military Industries and General Dynamics) that are mounted on Israeli Merkava tanks and on armored fighting vehicles and other platforms.
Other countries, including Russia, have their own versions of Active Protection Systems, but none of them has shown up in Ukraine.
It isn’t clear if an active protection system can defeat an APFSDS round.
Most NATO tanks don’t have active protection onboard.
Mines and countermeasures
The Russians have relied heavily on air-launched mines against Ukrainian tanks and armored fighting vehicles. They also have developed a new type of top attacking mine called the PTKM-1R. The PTKM-1R mine is activated by the sound of an armored vehicle. Apparently it is equipped with an internal library capable of recognizing a significant target such as a tank or armored fighting vehicle. When the sound indicates the target is in range, the PTKM-1R fires its mine that homes-in on the topside of the target, destroying it.
Conventional mines, even if air launched, typically attack the underside of a vehicle. Either they can blow off the tracks or wheels (in the case of wheeled fighting vehicles) or they can destroy the vehicle itself. There are two weak points in any tank
the top, especially the turret, and the bottom or underside, which lacks heavy armor protection. Both the Russians and NATO have developed a variety of vehicles designed to destroy mines. These have some value. -Many use a tank chassis for the tank clearing system (which may be rollers or earth-moving plows). Unfortunately, mine-clearing systems must move slowly on the battlefield, making them vulnerable to enemy fire. Mine-clearing vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine in significant number.
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Anti-armor weapons can knock out any tank on either side. Rather than investing in WWII-era technology, we should be investing in anti-drone technology and building swarms of our owns.
“NATO’s war problem: weak armor”
Take that, Putin!!!! We don’t need no decent armor for our tanks because Russian weapons don’t even work, and that’s because Ruzzians are sub-human!!!!
(even if they learn math without calculators and graduate twice as many engineers as the US)
So, take that, Putin!!!!
Yeah M1s aren't great, but neither are any of the Russian tanks. The munch vaunted Russian "super-weapons," like the T-14 Armata, can barely make it to Ukraine and in fact the Russkies appear to have halted production. Oops.
40 years go the saying was: What can be seen can be hit, what can be hit can be killed.
You're absolutely correct. Tank warfare is obsolete. And aircraft carriers will soon be as well. Drones and hypersonic missiles are what you'll need to win tomorrow's wars.
Interesting discussion of this article here, especially the contributions of Freeper Spktyr.
Russians have never lacked intelligence. You don’t get masses of chess masters and rocket scientists from a left hand of the intelligence bell curve population. They have always been underestimated at their opponents’ peril. Former Senators from Delaware, on the other hand ...
It’s axiomatic that generals are always fighting the last war, and Red Army generals are fighting the one before that.
The West will innovate. Moscow not so much.
A warhead will hit and destroy what it hits.
Instead rely on dummies and duplication.
A new style tank might have 40 pods in a 5 by 8 array, two of which are well-armored and which each house a man. It might have 16 drive units, 8 on each side. That tank might have six ‘guns’, one of which is real.
Actually, the Russians have innovated. They started putting cages on their tanks early on. Some of the first ones were kinda funky looking, but hey, they more or less worked. Now they’ve got more sophisticated.
“anti-drone technology”
Shotguns
Technology is always advancing, but the military resists the changes in doctrine necessary to address it. Insurgents are more adaptable since they are not restricted so much by bureaucratic intransigence. The bureaucracy’s primary concern is protecting itself, and it’s always the troops in harms way who pay the price for their fecklessness.
There’s also balloons.
Blast away - they cost maybe 10 cents each.
Javelins cost?
“still waiting for the West’s F-16 wonder weapon arrival”
I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Denmark says it’ll be an extra six months...at least...before the first 6 are delivered.
The future is lightweight, hard rubber wheeled surface drones with big guns.
10s of thousands of them, supported by airborne drones on the battlefield....and air dominance with manned stealth aircraft controlling all of it.
You miss the point. Sending US taxpayers equipment to be knowingly destroyed is criminal. An honest admission of declining to send certain equipment to destruction and preserving our equipment is a responsible action- but unfortunately it doesn’t fit senile Joe’s Ukie war narrative.
In any case, matters little now that the tide has undeniably turned into Vlads favor, time for senile old Joe to admit the truth….first he said , “ Support Ukraine for as long as it takes”….last month it turned to “ Support Ukraine as long as we can”…..in a few weeks we shall hear “ who is Ukraine? “.
….senile corrupted Joe, one heck of a “ leader”….carry on war cheerleaders.
Denmark says it’ll be an extra six months...at least...before the first 6 are delivered.
————
How convenient. There will only be a rump state of Ukraine left by then.
Hey USA will increase shell prodution by the end of 2025, that’s only 23 months !
Russia losses are approaching fourteen thousand tanks and combat vehicles, largely to leftover US and NATO weapons, which are getting replaced as they are used, with no direct US or NATO military combat losses:
"Who cares."
Ukraine loses a handful of older Leopard tanks while Russia loses several times as many tanks and vehicles in the process
"NATO can't win against Russia."
When it is the Russian military getting depleted, when NATO militaries are getting replenished and increasing production, with no direct NATO involvement.
Pro-Russian logic is flawed.
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