Posted on 12/30/2023 4:41:19 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Democrats are still challenging congressional district maps nearly four years after they were drawn, hoping that the next court-ordered maps will favor them over Republicans. It looks like they will succeed in New York but fail in North Carolina. The state Democratic legislature will eventually draw the map which will take at least four Republican seats and give them to Democrats
In North Carolina, three Democratic seats have been gerrymandered into extinction. The upshot from all this maneuvering is that it's a wash and neither party gains more than one or two seats.
There are 28 Democrats who have already announced their retirement while only 14 Republicans have done so. With a dozen or more retirements expected after the holidays, members have a chance to talk to their families and weigh their options before filing deadlines.
You would think that with a dysfunctional Congress, there would be a lot more members looking to escape. But that's not the case this cycle.
“Members sort of knew that this is what the institution is currently like when they chose to run for office,” said a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Molly Reynolds.
“Some of them may well be feeling frustrated at this point in time, but anybody who has been elected to Congress in recent years, they’re not surprised at what they’re finding when they are getting to Washington,” Ms. Reynolds said.
Aside from the involuntary exit of George Santos, most Republican retirements are in non-competitive districts that a GOP candidate should have no problem keeping.
The Democrats are a different story.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
FROM THE NEW YORK SUN:
Representatives Katie Porter of California, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia proved they could win toss-up congressional districts in good election cycles for Democrats and not-so-good cycles. They are all seeking higher office within their home states. Ms. Porter and Ms. Slotkin are running for the U.S. Senate. Ms. Spanberger is running for governor in 2025.
Democrats are also losing a six-term representative, Dan Kildee of Michigan, to retirement, leaving them with another competitive open seat to defend in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election. Representative Jennifer Wexton is not seeking reelection due to health challenges in a district that leans Democratic but is more competitive than most.
“Retirements are a huge problem for the Democrats. They’re not a problem for us,” Rep. Richard Hudson, the chairman of the House Republican campaign arm said.
The exception is the seat formerly held by George Santos. The primary Democratic challenger will be the former Congressman Tom Suozzi, who retired to run for governor and now wants his old seat back.
Given the GOP’s inability to find the door at midday, keep a lid on your expectations.
The NC information is wrong. The legislature in NC is controlled by Republicans— hence the elimination of democrat seats— upheld by federal court.
NY state is of course a cabal of animali demonrats who deserve every chastisement they get-, and they do not care a whit.
It’s a poorly written paragraph. The Democrat legislature being referred to is the one in New York, which is going to screw the Republicans out of at least 4 seats.
This isn’t realistic.
It’s very likely that the Dems overtake the House in 2024, even if the R’s regain the Senate and potentially win the Presidency, especially with how terrible GOP state parties have performed.
2022 was being billed as this big red wave, a red tsunami... and what happened? An extraordinarily narrow majority almost entirely due to the work of Lee Zeldin in New York.
The national GOP is garbage. Swing state GOPs are garbage. Blue state GOPs aren’t even trying. Loss after loss after loss, and the biggest news gets sucked into this Trump vs everyone storyline that shouldn’t even matter in these down ticket races.
Talk about poor writing and being somewhat clueless about everything (more than just NY and NC) that is going on.
In NY the Democrats — in violation of state law which gives redistricting power to a supposedly “independent” commission — will be redrawing the map to gerrymander Republicans out of existence.
OTOH in NC the Democrats — also in violation of the law — originally took redistricting power away from the GOP legislature. The new NC Supreme Court acted within the law instead of against it, and restored the lawful authority to the legislature, which then finally accomplished what should have been done a year or two earlier.
It’s not a “wash” by any means if you just look at those 2 states. The Democrats will pick up at LEAST 1 seat (net) between NC and NY.
Then figure in Alabama (+1 for the Rats), Louisiana (also +1 for the Rats) and Democrat gerrymanders yet to come in Wisconsin (+2 for the Rats) and possibly Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, and even perhaps UTAH. Not to rule out other states (Texas? Ohio? Arkansas?).
As I’ve said numerous times: just like counting votes in a close election, redistricting in modern times also never stops until the Democrats win.
The GOP dodged a bullet this week in Georgia, where the Democrats were already celebrating another “+1” in their favor when an Obama judge shockingly pulled the rug out from under them on that one.
An advantage which they will, as usual, bumble & fumble away, resulting in substantial gains for the communists who rule us...
I just hope we get people in there who will help US, not Ukraine!!
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