“The Nikolaev and Odessa oblasts would be a good way to re-route Russian natgas and oil away from the Ukrainian energy thieves and protect customers like Hungary.”
“That would require going as far as Uzhgorod- probably the original 2022 plan that failed.”
Five of the eight Large Landing Ships attached to the Russian Black Sea Fleet back then to conduct the amphibious portion of the planned attack on Odesa, are now out of action - 3 of them totally destroyed. No more can get into the Black Sea, because Turkey has closed the Bosphorus Straits to them under the Montreux Convention. Additionally, new anti-ship missile defenses deny the remaining three the ability to enter the North Western Black Sea at all.
A land attack toward Odesa would require Russia to cross the Dnieper River - but the Russians blew the bridges when they retreated back over them a year ago.
It is dramatically less likely now than last year (when it failed).
What Krynky doink?
Whatever they were trying to do along the southern route got slowed down under Mariupol.