I say this as one friend to another. Russia will not fold like a cheap suit.
Russia has, indeed, folded in the past. Think of the near revolution following Russia’s defeat in the Russia-Japan War of 1904, the revolution following Russia’s defeat by Germany in WWI, and the revolution in 1991 following Russia’s defeat in Afghanistan. So, your thinking is not entirely wrong.
But, these were long and hard fought wars. Those wars exhausted a limited economy, and the defeat of Russia could not be denied to the people of Russia.
Today, Russia has its people thinking it is winning a war against all of NATO in Ukraine. For example, before we delivered one M1 Abrams tank, the Russians were told they had destroyed hundreds of them. Ditto Patriot missile batteries and F-16 fighter jets. The Russians were told they had destroyed many times more than the number we delivered, before we had delivered any. Yes, the Russian people know they are taking huge casualties, but to them it is in a great patriotic war.
A big part of the aggression of Russia is that we have a feckless president. In the face of American weakness, aggressors are emboldened all around the world. It is like the Iranian hostage situation of 1979. The hostages were released by Iran only after Reagan was elected, as Iran had no idea what Reagan would do. The world needs an American president who has a policy of “peace through strength.”
> The world needs an American president who has a policy of “peace through strength.” <
I like the older more honest version of that saying; “Peace through superior firepower”
Yesterday’s violation of NATO airspace by a Russian missile requires a response. But it’ll be ignored and the Russians will do it again.