“Had Lincoln not sent those ships, the war would not have started there at that time and on that date.”
A true statement IMO. The war would have started when Bragg received orders from Davis to take Fort Pickens by force at Pensacola.
That's as good a guess as any, though Lieutenant Porter seemingly did his best to start a war as soon as he arrived, and were it not for the interdiction of Captain Meigs, he likely would have succeeded.