I suspect you’re right. GOP still has supermajorities in the Legislature, doesn’t it? Downside here is the appointment brouhaha that’s going to kick up if McConnell kicks off. I think the Legislature has the winning argument that the duly enacted legislation requiring a senate appointee be of the same party. However the rat-controlled Senate would vote to seat the person named by beshear while litigation went forward
The latest decent quality poll is about 10 days old and says Beshear +2. That number is lower than it was.