If what you said above is correct, please explain the difference in total rig count between CYs 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and CY2023.
2011
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2011
2016
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2016
2017
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2017
2018
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2018
2019
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2019
2023 thru (October)
https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-rig-count/2023
I don’t have enough knowledge, and there are too many variables for me to try to answer that. How much could each rig supply, what were the bad weather conditions that year, what was the market price that year, etc, etc, and plenty of variables I have not even thought of.
Maybe someone with more expertise can give it a try.