What I do not understand is why Prigozhin backed down.
He knew Putin well, he should know that Putin will severely punish anybody who backstabs him.
Once Prigozhin started the rebellion, there was no way for him to back down. Win or be dead.
And, apparently he had good shot on winning.
They made it most of the way to Moscow, which was defended by just some poorly armed untrained militias. All Russian army was in Ukraine.
Putin had no way to stop them. But, somehow, they talked Prigozhin into backing down.
All what would happen after Prigozhin backed down was very predictable. I just cannot understand why Prigozhin could not expect that!
Anybody here can enlighten me?
The facts available do not support this interpretation. As posted from a commentary in June, shortly after the events in question:
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"The state response was actually pretty straightforward: call Prigozhin’s bluff.
"Prigozhin drove toward Moscow with his column - but what was he going to do if he got there? Russian national guard was preparing to block them from entering the city. Would Wagner attack Moscow? Would they shoot national guardsmen? Would they assault the Kremlin or shell Saint Basil’s? Doing so would lead to the inevitable death of every man involved. Wagner, with no supply or procurement of its own, cannot fight the Russian armed forces successfully and probably could not supply itself for more than a day or two.
"The problem with Prigozhin’s approach is that pantomiming a coup doesn’t work if you aren’t willing to actually attempt a coup - and a coup only works if institutional authorities side with you. It’s not as if Prigozhin could drive a tank up to Lenin’s mausoleum and begin issuing orders to the federal ministries and armed forces. Coups require control over institutional levers of power - regional governorships, government ministries, and the officer corps of the armed forces.
"Prigozhin not only lacked all of these things, but in fact the entire apparatus of power denounced him, scorned him, and branded him a traitor. Having mutinied his way into a dead end, his only choices were to either start a firefight outside Moscow and guarantee that he would die and be known to history as a traitorous terrorist, or to surrender. It is probable that the Wagner column shooting down Russian aircraft (which Prigozhin later claimed was a “mistake”) spooked him and confirmed that he was going too far and did not have a good way out. When your opponent calls and you have nothing in your hand, there is nothing to do except fold.
"Consider then, for a moment, the actual scene in Russia. An armored column was driving towards the capital. What was the response from the Russian state and people? Authorities at all levels publicly denounced the uprising and stated support for the president. There were no defections, either from military units or civilian administration. There was no civil unrest, no looting, no loss of even basic government control in the country...
"...In the end, the government managed to dissipate a crisis situation, which could easily have spiraled into substantial bloodshed, without any loss of life apart from the crews of the two downed aircraft (deaths that we should not minimize, and must be remembered as victims of Prigozhin’s ambition). Furthermore, the terms of the “settlement” amount to little more than surrender by Prigozhin. He himself seems to be bound for a sort of semi-exile in Belarus (potentially awaiting a Trotsky ice-pick moment) and it seems that the majority of Wagner will sign contracts and be absorbed into the Russia institutional military. Based on the speech that Putin gave this evening (fifteen minutes ago as of this writing), Wagner fighters have only three options: sign MOD contracts, disband and go home, or join Prigozhin in Belarusian exile (presumably without their gear). As it relates to the institutional status of Wagner, Prigozhin lost and the state won. Wagner as an independent fighting body is finished."
A brief post-script to #33: available estimates for the Wagner column were capped at 25,000.
Moscow is a city with a population of around 12 million people (at least as of 2013).
A force of 25,000 would not have been able to conquer a militarized city like Moscow without a sufficient number of institutions defecting to support Wagner’s aims.
But as far is publically known, no one did.
Prigozhin realized that he had been tricked into a draw play.
Russian life continues to be dominated by Moscow and the socialist workers [swamp] union [of thugs] that carries out the commands of party officials and protects the leadership that controls enough of the people thru fear.
The “workers” disrupted the lines of communication used by Prigozhin.