Replies

Not all foreign FReepers. Here’s a response I gave to someone yesterday who appeared to be advocating for calling Russia’s nuclear bluff and see how that pans out.

Listen, I think Putin is a monster and Ukraine (no matter the flaws its leaders may have) are fighting back on their own territory and have been invaded.

However, I really have to wonder how serious you are when you state that you advocate ‘calling their bluff and letting the chips fall where they may.’

I am assuming that you are aware what you’re advocating for is calling bluff on possible nuclear war, and that the chips that may fall wherever they fall include countless American and European lives? You’d be willing to play a game of nuclear chicken when possible casualties include your own family?

And yes, in a nuclear war Russia would absolutely be devastated! Totally and absolutely wiped out. The only thing ‘Russian’ that would be left would be some pretty nice pieces of classical music, but not much else.

However, so would Europe and the US (and the rest of the world should some of the projections of nuclear winter be proven true).

Maybe it’s been so long since the Cold War that some have forgotten what MAD is all about, and which is why many people in the States and Europe are willing to risk nuclear war for the sake of …Ukraine! It is one thing for someone to say Slav Ukraine, and send over some Javelins and a bunch of 155 arty shells, it is another thing to play nuclear chicken with one’s kids in the backseat for the benefit of Ukrainian kids.

Even if we assume your belief that most of Russia’s nuclear weapons will not work, just 5% (five, not even fifty - 5%) of their deployed nukes is more than the entire Israeli active nuclear arsenal. 95% of their nukes could fail and they’d still be a real danger.

It is really amazing what some people are willing to absorb for the sake of Ukraine, unless they are Ukrainian. It is one thing to help Ukraine push Russia out of Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), but to risk one’s own people for Ukraine’s? Incredulous.

And I personally think that is what will lead to the West not supporting Ukraine as much next year. Things will get to a point where things are really coming to the edge, and citizens will start pushing back against their governments. Biden may be OK having the US/NATO get into a hot war with Russia, but by early next year I even doubt the most Liberal Democrat voter will have that as a top priority. The same is already happening in some European countries. The Slovak election was interesting, let’s see how the Poles vote, and the German economy has been absolutely devastated by the war. Let’s see how voters respond.

Unfortunately this is the same equation Putin is relying on, and although most European leaders tell Ukraine there is nothing to fear, let’s see what happens. For example, the FT had an interesting article today of what it would cost for Ukraine to join the EU. Many European countries that are currently net recipients of EU funds would become net funders, so that Ukraine can get money. Let’s see how tax payers react to that news once it becomes public.

Anyway, all the best. It is just amazing (to me) how people are OK playing a game of nuclear chicken. Amazing.

And yes, same to Russia. They are playing the same game. They miscalculated going into Ukraine, and things are reaching a boil. However, we all know the Russian President is a monster, and he may not have long to live and doesn’t care, and the Russian people support him and are not necessarily operating with full information.

Nuclear chicken between a suppressed and terminal country led by a despot (Russia) and a suicidal country led by an idealogue (US).

Ukraine is a fortunate country to have so many people willing to give up so much for it. More countries should be that lucky!