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Excellent article, not paywalled. Also worth reading is the original article (linked) from the (U.S.) Army War College magazine.

Key points:

The rate of American casualties in a future USA vs. Russia war would be much higher than we saw in Afghanistan. We could suffer as many killed or wounded in a week as we did in 20 years.
America's style of war vs. the goat-herders will be a disaster if attempted against the Russians.
The idea of sitting back in a Green Zone command and control headquarters and using radio and satellites to observe and coordinate as was done in Afghanistan will result in a quick obliteration by a force like Russia which has excellent electronic warefare technology and tactics. |
American command & control "glows" with emissions.
Ditto for uncontested air superiority. We got addicted to it in Afghanistan and Iraq, but won't have it fighting near-peer opponents.
The all-volunteer Army was a lash-up, designed to get us through the period after Vietnam. It is completely inadequate for something like a shooting war with Russia
Everyone in the military knows this, which is why they are starting the drumbeat to restore the draft. (Military conscriptions).
Use of open-source intel in the Ukraine war has led to some terrible outcomes. It's not reliable and the idea we sould make life-and-death military decisions based on what some blogger in Holland or vlogger in Switzerland says is a failure mode.

I’ve been posting about this for years and it is one of the benefits for the West coming out of this war, the seeing of this and the overall consumption of men, ships, air, weaponry, fuel, etc. if we have a major war with China for instance where all the stops are pulled out.

I have been calling it bench depth, where Divisions are being overrun and ammo and food not reaching the front, large units are being cut off and on their own, chaos and uncertainty everywhere on the front, can our military supply it, and can our soldiers hold up mentally and emotionally.