George Kennan, our greatest modern diplomat and the author of the 5,000 word "Long Telegram" in 1946 that established our containment policy, wrote in 1997 at age 92 that NATO expansion to the east “would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.”
“Such a decision,” he went on, “may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations.”
Were he with us today, Kennan would undoubtedly say “I told you so.”
One can easily understand why the Warsaw Pact countries would want to join NATO. It is an insurance policy for their national security with the US picking up the tab up to and including nuclear war to defend them. Uncle Sap has been providing the security umbrella for Europe for 75 years while the Europeans built their generous welfare states amid an ever declining investment in their own defense. The Europeans cleverly let us think we were the leaders of the Free World while our blood and treasure were being squandered all over the world.
Russia has drawn the red line on Ukraine entering NATO. Given the close ties between Ukraine and Russia/Soviet Union over hundreds of years, it is incorrect to compare Ukraine with the other European countries that joined NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union. And EVERY European country is NOT a member of NATO.
Europe 1990
Europe 2022
How do the Ukrainians, despised as they are, go forward? Do they surrender and hope for what’s best?
Despised by whom? I compare Ukraine to an over-matched fighter who has too much courage for his own good. He is being battered all over the ring taking a life-threatening beating. It is time for his trainers (US/NATO) to throw in the towel and stop the fight to save his life. We don't have to destroy Ukraine to save it.
But war still rages in Ukraine. We should rally together to stop it. I think your proposal for Trump to “get them together by withholding aid” is important but only one step. Would the Russians accept Donbas, permanent status on Crimea and withdraw from the rest?
In March 2022 Russia made four demands:
"To end the war, Ukraine must not pursue NATO or European Union membership, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory and recognize the Lugansk and Donetsk regions as independent states." Several times Putin has opined that the Minsk Agreements would be the best way to go.
But since March 2022, events on the ground have changed. Russia has acquired more territory and held phony plebiscites that have incorporated four regions in the Donbas into Russia.
Under Minsk, the Donbas would have remained part of Ukraine, but given more autonomy. The best deal Ukraine can get now may be to limit Russian territorial gains in the Donbas, agree to not join NATO, and with our assistance, obtain some security guarantees that Russia will not be allowed to invade again without severe consequences that could trigger NATO involvement.
We have some leverage over Russia with the sanctions and the designation of Putin as a war criminal. In any event, an end to the fighting and the beginning of negotiations would be a good interim solution. After 70 years have not ended the war officially in Korea, which is still under a truce. The rebuilding of Ukraine can begin once the negotiations start. The money spent to provide arms and ammo can be diverted to infrastructure. It seems that was the plan all the time:
The unearthed connections come amidst over $110 billion being sent to the notoriously corrupt country, with staunch opposition to curtailing the flow of cash or even auditing where the funds are actually being spent. Strategy papers obtained from these White House-linked consulting firms appear to call for a “multi-decade” continuation of foreign aid to Ukraine, even admitting the war provided a “window of opportunity” to achieve changes that would have been "politically difficult to achieve.”
Cheers.