Posted on 09/29/2023 9:09:58 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
The front line in Ukraine changed little in the winter. Russia aimed to capture the entirety of the Donbas, but it only inched forward.
Ukraine has made minimal gains in its counteroffensive. Dense Russian minefields and fortifications have made every attack extremely costly.
Despite nine months of bloody fighting, less than 500 square miles of territory have changed hands since the start of the year. A prolonged stalemate could weaken Western support for Ukraine.
Both sides started the year with lofty ambitions: Russia wanted to capture the eastern Donbas region, while Ukraine aimed to split Russian forces with an attack in the south.
Neither offensive has gone to plan. The front line, after months of combat and heavy casualties, remains largely unchanged.
Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War. While Ukraine made small gains in the south, Russia took slightly more land overall, mostly in the northeast.
(Excerpt) Read more at seattletimes.com ...
In other news I'm seeing reports that Ukrainian troops are surrendering (using the Radio Volga procedure offered by Russia) in increasing numbers. That greatly facilitates safer transit to the Russian lines, though in one incident the neo-Nazi (Azov battalion) blocking forces shelled surrendering troops when they realized what was happening.
20 year war to replace the last one in Afghanistan.
nyt map is totally bogus. Russia has not gained ANY ground since 01/01/23
There was an offensive?
Thank you, appreciate your comment.
At this point, the most useful analogy is the Western Front in WWI
Little or no ground will be gained until one party is completely exhausted, and then collapse occurs.
Really what does this same article say about Russia’s attempt to launch an offensive?
Why it says that they have made little gains also.
If the rumor of 10,000 Ukrainian defectors to Russia is correct I would say it’s all over but the crying.
NATO is not involved in this war or else the Russians would be getting hit from every direction and not just getting their evil butts kicked out of Ukraine.
Russia is counting on a win...
but not through battle.
Russia is counting of American and European support for Ukraine to dwindle or disappear altogether.
Russia can’t win on the battlefield, but, they’re getting close to winning through weakened support for Ukraine.
Russia forever! Long live Russia! Long live Putin!
Ukraine did not achieve a quick breakthrough in the South. However, they are making steady progress.
I don’t mean everything is going great for Ukraine.
It appears Russia has committed most of its forces and most of its best remaining forces to try and stop a Ukraine breakthrough.
Maybe between the weather and the Russian army, the Ukraine offensive will ground to a stop and even lose ground to the Russians.
Or maybe Ukraine is going to push through and make it to some strategic railroad towns which lie just South of where the fighting is taking place.
Clearly either modern armor doesn’t work as well in this environment as we had hoped, or the Ukrainians didn’t use it in the most effective manner.
The comparison of this situation to World War 1 doesn’t make much sense to me. This would be more likel the long attempts to take Vicksburg during the Civil War.
There was some use of trenches in that case but it wasn’t the unique environment of WW1. And neither is this.
WW1 bogged down with both sides in trenches. While any army will use trenches, in this case Ukraine does not appear to be fighting from trenches in the South. They are trying to push through defenses and the main obstacles include high ground not so much flat ground with trenches.
The 2 sides are both being ground down by the fighting. I hope the Ukrainians achieve their breakthrough but nobody knows for sure at this time.
This war is completely different because of the massive use of drones and other modern technologies.
I don’t know what quantity of drones the United States has but certainly hope we are ordering up a whole lot more of drones with weaponry.
Cheese rubbing against a grater steadily dwindles away. And if the cheese does most of the rubbing, minimal effort is required of the grater. Russia is the grater; Ukraine is the cheese.
“ NATO is not involved in this war…”
***********************************
LOL - You’re a funny guy. Revel in the carnage!
https://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=4185362%2C6
Agreed. Whether or not you support Ukraine, it’s a weakness in the Western psyche that causes the writer to state our support may weaken if the offensive doesn’t succeed.
Wars don’t work like that. Many times they take longer, cost more, and you have to keep fighting.
When your attitude is, well if they don’t win this year we’ll give up, that’s a prescription for failure.
>>the main obstacles include high ground not so much flat ground with trenches.
Where is this “high ground”?
The terrain maps on Google show less contours in Southern Ukraine than they do in Northeastern France.
“This war is completely different because of the massive use of drones and other modern technologies.”
*************
Yes and you can be sure that China is closely watching and learning from the technology and tactics being employed by both sides. Incredibly valuable intel for them. Just saying.
Buzzards hovering...
Good comparison. The obvious difference is that Afghanistan saw the US try and fail to conquer a country. This time it's Russian's turn.
‘Radio Volga,’ eh?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.