“This basically guarantees the loss of 1 GOP seat in the House next time ‘round.”
This LITERALLY guarantees the loss of 1 GOP House seat after 2024. The same thing, for the same reason, is VERY likely to happen in Louisiana and South Carolina (so the running total is -3).
They’re going to try it in Georgia and Tennessee too (another -1 for each of those).
New Democrat gerrymanders are likely coming before November of 2024 in Wisconsin (-2 at least) and New York (-3 at least and could be closer to -6) and Florida (-1 is the *best* case scenario).
The one and only place the GOP might attempt to offset this mass seizure of seats is in North Carolina, where they *should* be able to go +2:
a. if they ever get around to trying, and
b. if a Democrat court doesn’t stop them like it did last time (but has now been overruled)
In the end, “Speaker” McCarthy need not worry about all that pressure he’s been under lately; it is highly probable that he won’t be burdened with that job any longer once January, 2025 rolls around.
Unless, of course, there’s a “red wave” that’s a tad more effective than the one the Pollyannas fervently (and naively) believed 2022 was going to be.
Alabama’s black population is 26% of the total.
Alabama has 7 House seats. 26% of 7 is 1.82.
It’s not absurd for there to be 2 black majority House seats.
It’s also not absurd for there to be 1. Either ruling would be fair.
5 will be lost in ny very soon also