A chip off the old block: The 200mm fab supply chain breaker

The Register ^

[FarCenter]

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According to a report issued by the org on Tuesday, semiconductor manufacturers around the globe are expected to boost 200mm-wafer fab capacity by 14 percent between 2023 and 2026.

This increase includes the establishment of 12 high-volume 200mm wafer fabs, and is expected to push the industry to a peak of over 7.7 million wafers per month. All of this, of course, bodes well for broader technology supply chains.

SEMI believes the primary sectors fueling this growth are consumer, automotive, and industrial – particularly thanks to the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and associated increase in demand for powertrain inverters and charging stations.

SEMI's president and CEO, Ajit Manocha, pointed out that the automotive market in particular is experiencing bullish growth expectations, with expansions driven by increased chip content in EVs and initiatives to minimize charging times.

Key chip suppliers – such as Bosch, Fuji Electric, Infineon, Mitsubishi, Onsemi, Rohm, STMicroelectronics, and Wolfspeed – are scaling up their 200mm projects to meet anticipated demand.

SEMI expects 34 percent growth in fab capacity for automotive and power semiconductors from 2023 to 2026, with MPU/MCU coming in second with a 21 percent growth, trailed by MEMS, analog, and foundry with respective growth rates of 16 percent, 8 percent, and 8 percent respectively. The primary technologies spearheading the 200mm fab capacity are within the 80nm to 350nm process nodes, anticipating a growth of 10 percent for the 80nm to 130nm nodes and 18 percent for the 131nm to 350nm nodes within the forecast period.

Regionally, Southeast Asia is projected to lead with 32 percent capacity growth, followed by China with 22 percent. Notably, China aims to achieve a production rate of over 1.7 million wafers monthly by 2026.

Following in growth are the Americas, Europe & Mideast, and Taiwan with rates of 14 percent, 11 percent, and 7 percent, respectively. In 2023, China is forecasted to hold a 22 percent share in the 200mm fab capacity, with Japan accounting for 16 percent, trailed by Taiwan, Europe & Mideast, and America with respective shares of 15 percent, 14 percent, and 14 percent.

The global escalation in 200mm fab capacity signals the onset of a more resilient and resource-rich tech supply chain across all relevant sectors. This is welcome news after the chip crises sparked by 2020 events.

[JZelle]

Fab, I’m glad, there’s lemon freshened borax in you!”

[indthkr]

Supply chain bump for later....

[blam]

When I first started making chips in 1967 the wafers were about the size of a quarter and we applied the photoresist with a hyperdemic needle one at a time and then stepped on a foot switch to spin the wafer.

TSMC Delays US Chip Fab Opening, Says US Talent Is Insufficient
(Arizona chip factory won't be operational until 2025, TSMC said.)

[Mr. K]

I remember that.

And I had to walk uphill, both ways, to do it!

[Brilliant]

I am not at all convinced TSMC will build a plant. They are just posturing. They figure that China will invade Taiwan by then and the U.S. plant will be moot.

[protoconservative]

If process water was on time it would be the first time in recorded history that any fab met the date to produce product. You need a reliable source of ultraclean water and ultraclean air to even start the hard process of building a fab.

My experience in building plants, the plumbers who can do DI water right the second start up, name their own price. You spend millions just getting the water for things that dont even touch chips correct.

[blam]

"I am not at all convinced TSMC will build a plant. They are just posturing. They figure that China will invade Taiwan by then and the U.S. plant will be moot."

I don't know......

Morris Chang

Morris Chang (Chinese: 張忠謀; pinyin: Zhāng Zhōngmóu; Pe̍h-ōe-jī: Tiuⁿ Tiong-bô͘, Ningbo Wu: Jiann阴平去 Zong阴平去mœü阳舒; born 10 July 1931) is a Taiwanese-American[2][3] businessman who built his career in the United States and subsequently in Taiwan. He is the founder, as well as former chairman and CEO, of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). He is known as the semiconductor industry founder of Taiwan.[4] As of October 2021, his net worth was estimated at US$2.8 billion.[5] "

Morris left Texas Instruments in the early eighties when he was passed over for president of TI. He said it was because of racism. I think he was probably right. I was at TI when he left...I retired from TI at the end of 1994.

[Brilliant]

NVDA and AMD will be out of business if China invades Taiwan. And Samsung will be the only game in town. Samsung, and to the extent it is a game in town, Intel. I don’t know why NVDA and AMD don’t see that and prepare accordingly. They need to do some contracts with Intel to boost it as a possible competitor to TMSC. But they are stuck in the 1990s and 80s mindset where Intel was the enemy. They don’t understand the meaning of the word “enemy.”