What I knew had nothing to do with a “novel virus” - what true conservatives knew was that locking innocent people up was what communist China did.
It isn’t 20/20 hindsight, it is a basic understanding of liberty. All true conservatives get that. Trump didn’t because he doesn’t understand conservatism.
The original 15 days was to address the hospitals becoming overwhelmed with Covid patients. I doubt it was true but Trump wouldn’t have known that he was relying on the medical professionals. Trump was never in favor of long term lockdowns.