Posted on 08/26/2023 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.
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NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Hourly Updates
Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...1 AM POSITION UPDATE...
NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87
km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) in the northern rainbands of
Idalia
Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (KSRQ) recently reported
sustained winds of 37 mph (60 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
Ahem...
That was The Indianapolis Blizzard of 78... we had wind chills to minus 65. Cleveland was just in a feeder band.
;-)
One of the models has the hurricane crossing northern FLA and doing a big loop, bringing it back over the Atlantic coast of FLA.
Wow. That would make bad things worse.
Up for a few minutes,I knew it had the potential for a #4 but was not sure at all.Looks like it may be that strong.Just imagine if it had hit a populated area,lucky it wont. Hard to imagine a forward speed of almost 20 mph and still gaining strength,if it had been a slow mover it would have been a 5 easy.
I wonder what the gusts are they can be deadly with that kind of surge.
Jonesing for chocolate now. Or some popsicles. I may go make brownies. Nearest open store at 2 am here is probably 25 miles. Not counting gas stations.
cant stay awake any longer back to bed.
Good luck and best wishes to all our west coasters. It’s a fast moving storm is about the only good thing I can think to say about it right about now.
well...everybody seems to think because the ocean surface temps are high, that this is gonna be cataclysmic...if that was the case, then every tropical storm that forms would be a Cat 5...this is the 8th named storm so far and zero have been Cat 5. Which tells me that SST are not what makes strong storms, its wind in/out flow. Besides, this looks like its gonna hit in area where’s there’s a lot of nothing....
958.
Eyewall went from 80 degrees of +50 DBZ (red) precip at 1 am to 180+ by 0200.
At one point the algo showed half inch hail...or else intense rain. Peaks of 56 DBZ.
If the last half hour’s eastward component is a wobble, it is a substantial one. Fully half the eywall diameter off the earlier track now.
Not crystal clear yet, hut the western eyewall looks to be in early ERC.
200 AM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 100 MI SW of Cedar Key FL
About 175 MI S of Tahallassee FL
Max Sustained Winds...120 MPH
Movement...N at 15 MPH
Minimum Pressure...945 MB
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the storm center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight from the coast of
west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.
The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas later today.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Hey there—thanks for your detailed analysis. Much appreciated. IIRC, EWRC would possibly inhibit substantial intensification before landfall—is this correct?
Latest discussion (11PM) has wind peaking at or just after landfall...115 kt.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST
24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
Possibly but it’s a timing thing. This may peak at or after landfall, in which case, yes the ERC helped the beach area, but nailed the bits further inland.
Thanks.
EMS confirmed tornado on the western edge of Avon Park ion Highlands Co, about 0145. Healthy feeder band moving up the center of the peninsula.
“plus in Daytona you’ve got all the surf and rip tides kicking up from Franklin.”
Good point. Yup.
“We got a robocall today from our RV insurance company to move our RV to a safe location as high winds are expected in our area (north GA). That was a first”
Wow! NGA!
Fox35 Orlando saying could be 23 foot storm surge as it lands.
Must have been an anomaly. Now saying 12-16 ft storm surge at landfall.
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