Posted on 08/26/2023 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.
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NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
400 PM CDT Update
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About 65 MI NE of Cozumel Mexico
Max Sustained Winds...30 MPH
Movement...STATIONARY
Minimum Pressure...1006 MB
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
One of the reason we didn’t move to Florida. I just didn’t like the idea have having the wind shred my house to pieces. Then looked at the home insurance prices, and that was a total deal breaker.
If Florida gets another Andrew in the Miami area, it could throw the state into turmoil.
And we’re off…
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today. Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time. Given
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten. Surface synoptic observations suggest that
the current intensity is around 25 kt.
The current motion estimate is nearly stationary. There is a
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little
motion is predicted during that period. After that time, a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone.
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3
days. Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. The
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus guidance.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast. The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
need to keep an eye on if the center reforms further east closer to that big blob of storms south of western Cuba
if it does then models may be too far west
time will tell
Oh boy, an NN first alert storm watch - a favorite time of year!!!!
Actually, thanking you in advance NN for all you do!
Unlike politics, this is actually useful!
I understand the need for a storm advisory based on a prediction, but to place much of Florida in a formal state of emergency when it’s not even raining cheapens the phrase “state of emergency” and conditions people not to believe what they actually see.
We go through this every year
They do pretty good with tracking predictions, not so much how powerful they can become, quickly.
Right now predicted to be TS or low end Cat 1 in big bend region, that’s a good place for it
You see, the Gulf of Mexico is a big bowl. Once the storm gets into the Gulf, it will make landfall. Waiting until the rain starts is not intelligent strategery.
Trust me when I say you have lots of attitude, and you don't have a clue about which you bloviate.
I’ve lived in Florida my entire life, 63 plus years, hurricanes are a part of life, the issue is with the number of people moving to Florida who have never experienced a hurricane.
Not everyone, but a significant percentage of people moving to Florida want to live as close the ocean as their finances will allow, the closer you live the more money you pay and the more damage you will suffer from a hurricane. If you live in the middle of the state you might be without electricity for some time, but in terms of storm damage not much chance if you are prepared, remove major trees that can fall on your property, stock up and ride it out, I’ve lived thru a number of major storms, once the storms hit land they die out quickly except for the rain, don’t live in a flood prone area and it’s not so bad.
The storm is currently stationary. Forecast is uncertain. All of Florida Gulf Coast should be watching.
If it could just hit the panhandle as a 1, but hit Atlanta as a 5 for Fani and Kemp... And think of all the cheap easy coverage for CNN to supply.
I’ve been mentioning this to my family for days. They looked at me like I was crazy (I get that a lot anyway😄) and now we’re “in the cone”
Yes! Our local weather guy has been talking about this system all week. He would point to the map, where there was nothing. He’s very reliable, so I’ve been sauntering around recharging battery backups and all the little things we do. No rush, no fuss. Also in the cone this afternoon.
I have lived in Florida over 40 years…….
……..went through several hurricanes
…..evacuated to other parts of the state twice…
….and NEVER had my house shredded!
I happen to love Florida!
Hurricanes can’t strengthen over land. They get their energy from warm water.
As for your personal animosity: Be advised that what you think of me -- what you think of anything for that matter -- means so little to me that I have difficulty putting it into words ... and I am very good with words. Know that if I want an assessment of my intellect similar to that which you took time to post, I don't need to go the effort of posting my opinion on FreeRepublic, I simply have to say something -- most anything -- to my lovely bride of 38 years. So I've already had that assessment today!
Now Nauti, go forth, play nice and be well. Cheers!
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