Posted on 08/26/2023 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 10 has formed between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Tip of Cuba. Governor DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties in advance of the system.
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NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Honestly the more they shove it in my face without just cause yet, the more I get ticked off and tune out. Crap shoot to hop I hear the warning that is real in real time.
Seems like we just did this. The years fly...
1000 AM CDT Update
-------------------------------
About 80 MI ESE of Cozumel Mexico
Max Sustained Winds...35 MPH
Movement...E at 2 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1001 MB
Thank you for this thread. We finally moved back into our house about two months ago. Flooded out from Ian in Cape Coral. Be safe!
Mash graphic to enlarge
Thank you for checking in. Good to hear you have settled back into your home following nasty old Ian. Cape Coral is a lovely location!
Very glad we get to spend another silly season together in the hurricane threads!
Sweeping statements without reference or specificity are not well received in a hurricane thread, where our lives depend upon accurate info. If you need further clarification about this comment, I will be more than happy to provide it to you, Bucky.
1015 AM CDT Update
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About 80 MI ESE of Cozumel Mexico
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Movement...E at 2 MPH
Minimum Pressure...996 MB
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Give it a break, Lurker. EO’s are important for many reasons that trigger legal responses. In Florida, in hurricane season, they are especially important even though you foreigners don’t get it. Anyhow, NN’s hurricane list has pulled many Floridians, and others, in the path out of trouble (as the EO’s are intended to do.) When you are off base as far as you are, let it go or, if gracious, apologize.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 271500
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023
So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.
The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.
The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to
low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48
to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72
hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model
guidance.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida
Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts,
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast,
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by
local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.
2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding
and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of
Youth.
3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Actually, this particular storm is not an entirely bad thing. A tropical depression or small hurricane will help break the drought that most of the state has suffered from this year and will act as a tune up for preparation against a major hurricane.
The last time a decent hurricane came near Jacksonville where I live now, the storm was supposed to arrive on Sunday, the prior Tuesday, my wife and I did some grocery shopping at Publix, all the water, Gatorade and toilet paper was already gone, we watched a lady leaving with 10-15 packs of water and a similar amount of Gatorade, gasoline was in short supply, it was madness.
If you are really worried, fill up a tub with water, fill your vehicle, get some non perishable food and after the storm drive somewhere if necessary,.
People’s lack of experience dealing with hurricanes and media’s fear mongering makes people go crazy
You have a good point. Meanwhile, there are several FL Gulf Coast areas still reeling from previous devastating storms. If we could guarantee a Tropical Storm moving at moderate speed, it would surely be a blessing.
Thanks for updates.. Even though I now live ~ 5,000 miles away - still have family and friends in FL...
You are a Naughty Nurse.
Nobody’s life is at risk at this point and plenty of less than life-critical posts are made to any and all such threads.
For reasons that elude me, in recent years, Florida seems to be getting more storms from the Gulf than the Atlantic. And those Gulf storms sometimes deliver a sucker punch, becoming stronger and hitting harder than expected. This current one does not seem to be of that type, but one can never quite know until they make land.
Glad you checked in. Mahalo.
Oh yeah, It’s all fun and sprinkles till the power goes out
Tropical storm now, latest advisory
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