The Six Hundreds Year War
OK, I'll be Sirius. The main reason Napoleon lost, and Hitler lost, was that there were always more Russians willing to die than there were French or Germans, simply on the basis of numbers. This is also why Ukraine cannot win.
The reason we lost in Viet Nam was that we cared about soldiers dying, and the media turned against us. Neither of those are problems in Russia: the government wouldn't mind to lose a million soldiers while Ukraine won't ever have a million soldiers, and the Russian media will never be allowed to turn against Russia regardless of what happens in Ukraine.
How the war ends depends on two things: how much Russia is willing to leave for Ukrainians to call a country, and who gets elected in 2024 to keep arming the Ukrainians.
Yours seems a reasonable analysis, not tinged by "my side" versus whatever. The narrative seems to be slowly shifting, based on war materiel being expended and the like.
For example, "Pentagon says allies will unite to train Ukrainians on F-16s, but warns jets aren't 'magic weapons' " -- In "F-16s won't be a 'magic weapon; for Ukraine, Milley warns" ABC News, May 25, 2023
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/austin-hopes-16-fight-jet-training-ukrainian-pilots-99598703
If those areas already taken by Russia are held, and if Ukraine's economy and demographics continues to deteriorate, it is no longer a matter of "white" versus "black" thinking and cheering, but about how much will a smaller and weaker Ukraine require to continue. Not just an issue for what next US administration comes, but what Europe will do in terms of manpower. "...more Russians willing to die than there were French or Germans..." is quite the issue, especially as France is currently blustering about retaking some power in Africa. Spread too far, your observation about "those willing to die" is most apt.
No it was the rulers who was willing for them to die. The Russian people are notoriously servile. But they are also whipped curs. And when they suffer to much and the leaders lose control they turn on their overlords quickly and that is what is about to happen. Also the Russian winters had a very major impact. This war is not being fought in the Russian cold.