Historically, as we began each war...we were always in terrible shape...until after WW II. For various reasons...they continued to pump tremendous amounts of money into the Pentagon, and kept them fully operational through the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and up to this point.
I think with the recruiting going south, within six years...they won’t be able to maintain all the fighters/bombers, naval ships/subs, or Corps. There’s some serious amount of funding cuts coming by 2030, and probably thirty major military installations to be cut because you don’t have the manpower. Same story for reductions in Pacific and Europe....those cuts are coming probably prior to 2030.
They are already not maintaining the mechanical portions of the services. One third of missile subs are operational at any one time and maybe half of combat aircraft and surface ships. We have not modernized our ICBM force nor tested systems for a long time. We are rapidly becoming an ineffective deterrent.
We no longer have the mighty industrial base that allowed us to rapidly ramp up to a paramount war footing in 1942. We have outsourced much parts manufacture to China and depend on China to keep WalMart and the military supplied. A war with China will instantly cut off our military from many categories of resupply.