Russia isn’t a threat to Europe.
Excuse me, Ukraine is in Europe.
Russia invaded Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Poland in 1989 and Romania in 1991. It invaded Georgia since then, and supports separatists in Moldova. Its puppet at the time Armenia invaded Azerbaijan. All of these were attacks in Europe. Russia has been making one after another attack in Europe, and you’re blind to it.
You and Mr. Kennan have the right to your opinion, but your opinion that Russia isn’t a threat to Eureop is wrong. Germany said don’t fast track Ukraine for NATO membership because this will provoke Russia. We followed Germany’s advise, and we wound up in this war. Germany was wrong. Doesn’t mean Germany was evil, nor Kennan, nor you, just wrong. Appeasement is taken as a sign of weakness by aggressors and causes war. Only peace through strength deters war and, moreover, is a winning strategy because freedom and democracy will eventually win. Just be patient.
Your idea that NATO is weaker because it has expanded is simply ludicrous. Yes, obviously, as Germany falls away from the front line of confrontation with Russia, it will feel safer and its natural tendency will be to let its guard down. This is a tendency we should resist. Now that Russia’s aggressiveness is again manifest, we have an opportunity to rethink NATO’s internal structure.
Regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis, I also once thought what you thought (that it was not merely the closest we came to a nuclear war, but was actually close). There’s been new scholarship that questions as to whether we were actually close. On the possibility you’re not aware, I’ll review this new scholarship.
In real time, we Americans were told (I was a politically-conscious boy, and so I too was told) that Russia did NOT have nuclear warheads on the island. They DID have nuclear warheads on the island. And, what is more, Castro asked Khrushchev to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. That’s pretty close, isn’t it? Maybe closer than you might’ve thought given the misinformation disseminated by the administration to the American people.
But Khrushchev said no. We’re not going to risk our eventual ideological victory. He said I have to get my missiles off that island and away that crazy man Fidel Castro. Khrushchev believed communism would bury us in refrigerators, automobiles, and other middle class indulgences, not with bombs.
If you would stop and think about it, why would Xi over in China have a nuclear war with us? Then to whom would he sell his cheap manufactured goods? (Or, from whom would he steal technology?) Besides, he thinks the Chinese people won’t succumb to the personal-level corruption of us in the west. So, as long as China plays within the rules regarding military adventure, intellectual property theft, slave labor, etc., as tough as enforcing these rules are, we can work with China.
But, Russia, I don’t know. Russia is going the way of North Korea. Isolated and paranoid, aggressive and potentially very dangerous given its nuclear arsenal.
Ukraine is one country in Europe. Russia doesn't have the conventional military power to invade and occupy Europe. It is having a hard time doing that in Ukraine. Biden and his supporters like to use the Domino Theory that was first employed in Vietnam. If we don't stop Putin in Ukraine, then Poland and the Baltics are next, conveniently ignoring that they are NATO countries and that Russia doesn't have the capability to project such power.
Russia invaded Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Poland in 1989 and Romania in 1991. It invaded Georgia since then, and supports separatists in Moldova. Its puppet at the time Armenia invaded Azerbaijan. All of these were attacks in Europe. Russia has been making one after another attack in Europe, and you’re blind to it.
We were smart enough not to get militarily involved in those "invasions" recognizing the Soviet's sphere of influence. The Soviets/Russians did not invade Poland in 1989. And they wisely stayed out of Poland during the Solidarnosc' movement. All of those countries listed are now independent after the fall of the Soviet Union.
You and Mr. Kennan have the right to your opinion, but your opinion that Russia isn’t a threat to Eureop is wrong. Germany said don’t fast track Ukraine for NATO membership because this will provoke Russia. We followed Germany’s advise, and we wound up in this war. Germany was wrong. Doesn’t mean Germany was evil, nor Kennan, nor you, just wrong. Appeasement is taken as a sign of weakness by aggressors and causes war. Only peace through strength deters war and, moreover, is a winning strategy because freedom and democracy will eventually win. Just be patient.
Kennan was right. We missed a real opportunity to incorporate Russia into Europe after the collapse. Instead, we expanded NATO. We are now living with the consequences in much the same way that we are dealing with the consequences of Carter's actions in Iran.
Your idea that NATO is weaker because it has expanded is simply ludicrous. Yes, obviously, as Germany falls away from the front line of confrontation with Russia, it will feel safer and its natural tendency will be to let its guard down. This is a tendency we should resist. Now that Russia’s aggressiveness is again manifest, we have an opportunity to rethink NATO’s internal structure.
I would posit that NATO is weaker and that Ukraine will divide the alliance, which has outlived its usefulness. NATO is a great deal for the former Warsaw Pact countries as well as others like Finland and Sweden. It is an insurance policy where the US acts as the guarantor of their sovereignty up to and including nuclear war and pays most of the premiums. The US is the world's biggest debtor nation. We can't afford these endless wars, which only weaken us.
Poll: Less Than Half of Germans Support Defending NATO Allies
A new opinion poll has revealed that two-thirds of German citizens now fear being drawn into a direct military conflict with the Russian Federation, with only 45% saying that they want Germany to come to the aid of another NATO member state if it were attacked.
The polling data, which also indicates the German population fears war and inflation more than all other issues facing the country, emerges from the results of the “Security Report 2023,” carried out by the Allensbach Institute on behalf of the Center for Strategy and Higher Leadership, the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports.
Regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis, I also once thought what you thought (that it was not merely the closest we came to a nuclear war, but was actually close). There’s been new scholarship that questions as to whether we were actually close. On the possibility you’re not aware, I’ll review this new scholarship.
From Amb Jack Matlock, a career FSO, and trhe last US Ambassador to the Soviet Union. Ukraine: Tragedy of a Nation Divided
"When I hear comments now such as, “Russia has no right to claim a ‘sphere of influence,’” I am puzzled. It is not a question of legal “rights,” but of probable consequences. It is as if someone announces, “We never passed a law of gravity so we can ignore it.” No one is saying that Ukraine does not have a “right” to apply for NATO membership. Of course it does. The question is whether the members of the alliance would serve their own interest if they agreed. In fact they would assume a very dangerous liability.
I point this out as a veteran of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. At that time I was assigned to the American embassy in Moscow and it fell my lot to translate some of Khrushchev’s messages to President John Kennedy. Why is it relevant? Just this: in terms of international law, the Soviet Union had a “right” to place nuclear weapons on Cuba when the Cuban government requested them, the more so since the United States had deployed nuclear missiles of comparable range that could strike the USSR from Turkey. But it was an exceedingly dangerous move since the United States had total military dominance of the Caribbean and under no circumstances would tolerate the deployment of nuclear missiles in its backyard. Fortunately for both countries and the rest of the world, Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to defuse the situation. Only later did we learn how close we came to a nuclear exchange.
If you would stop and think about it, why would Xi over in China have a nuclear war with us? Then to whom would he sell his cheap manufactured goods? (Or, from whom would he steal technology?) Besides, he thinks the Chinese people won’t succumb to the personal-level corruption of us in the west. So, as long as China plays within the rules regarding military adventure, intellectual property theft, slave labor, etc., as tough as enforcing these rules are, we can work with China.
No one wants a nuclear war if they are sane. But events can escalate and go out of control or there is an accident. I don't share your views of China, which is not playing by the rules now. China has a long term strategy to defeat the US, its main global rival. We have a compromised President and many "captured" elites who have been taking money from China and have investments in China. It is no coincidence that we just had a parade of US leaders going to China to meet with Xi, including Musk, Bill Gates, Jamie Dimon, and Kissinger. They all want decoupling off the table. China continues to run huge trade surpluses with the US. We have become dependent for so many items including pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, solar panels, rare earth metals, etc. Biden's Greemn New Deal is a boon for China, which stands to profit the most.
But, Russia, I don’t know. Russia is going the way of North Korea. Isolated and paranoid, aggressive and potentially very dangerous given its nuclear arsenal.
The West is becoming isolated. Putin just hosted a meeting with African countries and Russia will be a big player at the BRICS meeting in South Africa in August. Russia has a major role as an exporter of needed global commodities. It has 8.9% of the world's oil exports; 10.3% of the wheat exports; and 15.5% of the world's fertilizer exports (number 1 in the world). A global political realignment is underway sparked by the war in Ukraine. It is a realignment detrimental to the US.