NATO expansion feeds into that paranoia. In 1997 George Kennan declared that expanding NATO to the east “would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.”
“Such a decision,” he went on, “may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations.”
Yes, we had conflicts and even got into some minor wars, but we were never really at risk of nuclear war.
The Cuban missile crisis was the closest we have ever been to nuclear war. We were really at risk for a nuclear war as it was disclosed later that some top officials in the Kennedy Administration sent their families out of Washington DC. Both sides blinked. The Soviets reversed their decision to station missiles in Cuba, and we removed IRBMs from Turkey. In any successful negotiation, both sides must have face-saving exits.
We are living in dangerous times. Hence, NATO is stronger than ever.
NATO was far stronger when I was assigned to a NATO command in Italy 1968-70. Military expenditures among NATO countries have declined as a percentage of GDP. We had better interoperability.
Only a handful of NATO members have met their obligation of 2% GDP on defense. How can we square that with Article 5? If these countries don’t have the commitment to provide for their own defense, why should we continue to pay the lion’s share of the costs to defend Europe.
Burden sharing has been an issue in NATO for many decades. Uncle Sap has been providing the security umbrella for Europe since the end of WWII. The Europeans have created generous welfare states in lieu of defense spending. As a result, the militaries of these countries have been in steady decline for decades. Interoperability is a joke. Without the US, NATO is a paper tiger. It has become a toothless bureaucracy in a billion dollar headquarters in Brussels.
--NATO member states agreed at the summit in 2014 to spend, or to move towards spending, 2% of GDP on defense. In 2023, only 11 of 30 countries will reach that goal.
--Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the largest increases in defense spending occurred on NATO’s Eastern flank.
--Overall defense spending of NATO plus candidate Sweden will top 1.2 trillion euros, or 2.6% of total GDP. However, the high percentage is due to US spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the total.
--Without the United States, the combined defense spending of the remaining members would only reach 1.8% of GDP. The shortfall to the 2% target amounts to more than 50bn euros.
--The largest shortfalls in 2023 will be posted (in euros) by Germany (17bn), Canada (14bn), Spain (12bn) and Italy (10bn). The largest surpluses will occur (in euros) in the USA (330bn), Poland (17bn) and the UK (7bn).
We have started a new Cold War, driven Russia and China closer together, placed the dollar as the world's reserve currency in danger, sparked a global political realignment, and raised the specter of an unintended nuclear war. Over Ukraine? We are stuck to this tar baby and don't know how to get unstuck. The more more we get involved, the more ensnared we become.
NATO is an organization in search of a mission. Russia is not a conventional military threat to Europe.