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26AUG 2024 Analysis: Al Qaeda kills hundreds in Burkina Faso attack

The ruling military junta in Ouagadougou is shakily struggling to combat the ever-growing jihadi threat from both JNIM [the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims, Al Qaeda’s branch for West Africa] and its rival, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP)—though JNIM remains the bigger threat inside Burkina. According to estimates from late last year, the al Qaeda branch controlled at least 40% of Burkinabe territory. However, ISSP continues to strike inside Burkinabe as well.

This struggle includes trying to control the fighting inside Burkina Faso, as well as trying to prevent the flow of jihadist violence out of Burkina’s borders and into neighboring states like Benin, Togo, Ghana, and now, to a lesser extent, Ivory Coast.

Whereas Ivory Coast has seemingly been able to repel JNIM’s advances on its territory, and Ghana remains officially silent on any reported JNIM presence within its northern areas, Benin and Togo currently struggle to fight back against JNIM. Though JNIM has been able to build bases in both countries, much of the violence in those countries still emanates from Burkina Faso.

In addition, though the use of ex-Wagner forces is not as conspicuous as in its northern neighbor of Mali, Russian mercenaries are in Burkina assisting the regime in various capacities. Russians are mainly currently used in a training role for elite Burkinabe troops and regime protection in Ouagadougou.

However, the situation could change if Traoré requests more Russian mercenaries and the Kremlin actually deploys them to Burkina. The role of ex-Wagner forces could become similar to their deployment inside Mali, where they take a more offensive part against the jihadists.

This weekend’s massacre in Barsalogho is a stark reminder of JNIM’s remaining threat and capacity for violence inside Burkina Faso. In many ways, this unfortunate attack also signals the continued deterioration of the Burkinabe state and serves as a barometer of the Sahel as a whole.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/08/analysis-al-qaeda-kills-hundreds-in-burkina-faso-attack.php