Russian mercenaries in Africa have been ineffective in counterinsurgency operations and would likely be more focused on advancing the Kremlin's strategic aims of regime security and resource plunder than degrading insurgent support zones in western Niger. Wagner Group forces spectacularly failed to slow the Salafi-jihadi insurgency in Mozambique in 2019 and have failed to degrade the Salafi-jihadi insurgency in Mali.[27] The Wagner contingent's size is insufficient to address the insurgency in Mali, given its force composition is roughly 6 percent of the struggling French and UN troops it replaced.[28] Wagner's brutal tactics are also counterproductive, as they exacerbate human rights abuses against civilians that insurgent groups use to gain popular support.[29] However, a significant Wagner presence around Niamey would improve the Nigerien forces’ capacity and enable the junta to divert more troops away from the capital.
Regime protection and resource plunder advance the Kremlin's strategic goals of supporting pro-Russian dictators and acquiring natural resources that help mitigate Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.[30] Wagner's most significant contributions in Mali have been to symbolic victories in northern Mali that have shored up regime security and positioned its Wagner fighters near northern Mali's artisanal gold mines.[31] The small mercenary force in Burkina Faso focuses on regime security and training of elite units and does not directly engage in counterinsurgency operations.[32]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-january-19-2024
Russian and Chadian officials met in Moscow on January 24, suggesting that Chad may be the Kremlin's next target among former French colonies on the African continent. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chadian junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby to discuss counterterrorism efforts in Chad and announced an upcoming agreement expanding Russian–Chadian cooperation.[29] Russian Deputy Defense Ministers Colonel General Alexander Fomin and Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov also met with Chadian Minister of the Armed Forces, Veterans Affairs, and War Victims Dago Yacouba to discuss bilateral military and military-technical cooperation and regional security.[30] Fomin and Yevkurov previously met with Nigerien National Defense Minister Major General Saliufou Modi.[31] ISW previously reported that Russia and the Central African Republic (CAR) are in negotiations to construct a Russian military base in CAR.[32] Russia appears to be attempting to expand its involvement with and influence on authoritarian regimes in western and central Africa, particularly focusing on former French colonies in the Sahel such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled Africa Corps published photos on January 24 claiming to show Africa Corps personnel arriving in Burkina Faso.[33] The Africa Corps claimed that 100 Russian personnel will perform executive protection and conduct counterterrorism operations in Burkina Faso and that another 200 personnel will arrive in the country in the near future.[34] ISW previously reported that the Kremlin is likely attempting to expand Russia's influence in Africa through the Russian MoD and the MoD-controlled Africa Corps and assessed that the Kremlin is likely attempting to expand the Africa Corps’ operations in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali.[35] The Kremlin may also eventually set conditions to expand the Africa Corps’ operations in Chad, given January 24 Russian–Chadian government meetings.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2024