Commercial real estate, particularly class-a office type is getting smashed.
One major problem is income property is valued, most often soley, on income. It also often needs to be refi’d after short term loans and balloons come due.
Owners will be forced to try to refi devalued property at much harsher terms and higher rates, which mostly won’t happen... even if anyone - banks or owners - wanted it to.
Most will just walk, which is happening now, with office *and retail.
Correct.
The implications make 2008 look mild.
And, once you go remote, you are competing with everyone in the world for the same job. I think Croatia and India can do things cheaper than New York.
The decline is baked into the bread already. What is an open question is if we will get a government ending collapse at the local, state, federal, or international level. The various governments can see this, and are not just going to let San Francisco or New York decline while Idaho and Ohio stumble on.
And if you can live anywhere and telecommute, why live in places where the cost of living is high?