Posted on 07/20/2023 4:17:31 AM PDT by FarCenter
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. cut its annual outlook for revenue and postponed the start of production at its signature Arizona project to 2025, twin setbacks for a chipmaking linchpin struggling with geopolitical tensions and a deep market slump.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Not good.
I think many see the economic tidal wave coming.
Thx as always for the work you do in posting articles on this subject.:-)
As an aside, though the AI-related stocks have been sluggish since yesterday, they are still near highs.
Going forward, I think that market is going to be more driven by actual earnings than mere expectations. Not a bad thing IMHO.
Not true. Unless you see something the market doesn’t.
TSMC delivered the outlook after posting its first quarterly profit decline in four years, underscoring the extent of a global slide in smartphone and PC demand.Note: Unrelated to growth in AI-related chips.
I’m speculating just as much as you and others.
Have huge crashes been predated by stock highs?
The idea that the stock market being high is indicative of a healthy economy is laughable.
Did I say that?
I have been in the market since 1970 and spent my career in the securities business and NEVER ONCE said that the market is indicative of economic performance in general.
That said, there are times when a stock's movements depend on actual earnings movements and less on anticipation (earnings being indicative of future performance). I think that's where AMD is right now. The market wants some good news before pushing AMD above 120.
Just as an aside, I make my living "speculating" on the market. It's not a game to me.
With regard to huge crashes, if you look at market history you will see that huge crashes are followed by recoveries. Also, a good sign of a healthy market are regular mini-crashes from day to day. I like it when stocks in my portfolio move forward 3 steps and then back by 2. That tells me there isn't a bubble...and that kind of volatility gets rid of "casual" investors who are just buying on a hunch or because someone has given them a tip.
Not to belabor the subject, but, in addition to my day job, I have managed personal and family portfolios since early in my career and have always--every year, year-in-and-year-out--beat the S&P 500 significantly.
Your original post was devoid of any explanation of anything. Just “You’re wrong”.
In every major crash, a high percentage of very intelligent and highly experienced investors lose their ass.
Most books I’ve read from people that wound up leaving the industry state how full of it most are. What do you think?
That is impressive.
Thx. I am downright awful at many things, but I have a knack at this.;-)
My skill is only getting partially injured when crippled is on the line.
Decision making, not so good…
Very true. That's why I advise people to never use leverage or invest in highly-leveraged companies (i.e., too debt-heavy).
The market is a lot like sailing. Enjoy the good days but be prepared to weather any storm that comes your way. Storms eventually pass.
;-)
I’m a fan of the concept of “Circle of Competence”.
I know what I am good at, and what I am not.
I need someone else for investment purposes.
Fitness, engineering, useless trivia, and being a smartass are my strengths.
I adapted Graham's "value investing" for my specialty, "growth investing." I have his book, "Security Analysis," somewhere here in my messy office. I read it from time to time to stay grounded.
I was reading a book by Rolf Dobelli, and he was referencing Buffett and Munger.
He also mentioned Thomas Watson.
It doesn’t necessarily apply to investing, but I practice meditation (no chanting BS) and read Stoicism teachings daily.
I’m a naturally racing minded, non relaxing kind of person.
It helps me to be less impulsive and anxious in life.
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