I agree with your scenario the only thing is Zelensky probably has to go, Russia is aware that Ukraine will probably start a guerilla war after any peace deal just annoy and bleed Russia.
I think Zelensky gets to stay as figurehead for about 4 years, then retires to somewhere with his billions he got from our middle class. When they finally make the peace deal, I think Russia lets him save some face, but finds a way to keep him on a short leash.
Since we made Zelensky a billionaire, I am sure the temptation to finally start living large is becoming overwhelming to him.
No they won’t. All ukes I’ve talked to don’t support this. They hate zelensky with a passion. Oust him and sign a deal, let things settle. That won’t happen though. West wants a war and they’ll keep pushing.
Ukraine does have a habit of keeping frozen conflicts of one form or another going on over the decades...even among themselves. The Oligarchs and Political leadership can't seem to keep their country at peace...as their History shows.