I think it’s extremely unlikely anyone would force Putin’s plane down. Nobody wants to have Putin in custody as it might mean immediate retaliation from Russia. Putin would be “the hot potato.” We saw this play out when nobody wanted the Shah of Iran. That’s point one.
Point two is whatever comes after Putin might be worse. Even the man Putin has been slowly killing in prison for his “democratic” ideals believes Ukraine is a natural possession of Russia. The mechanism for filling the army’s ranks without any public announcement of a draft callup already exists in Russian law. There would be no public blowup for calling up an additional half million men as the only people who would know it happened would be the guys going to the Ukrainian front.
But the real reason Putin isn’t going is, generally speaking, a ruler not at home is much more likely to be deposed.
But the real reason Putin isn’t going is, generally speaking, a ruler not at home is much more likely to be deposed.
You’re over the target here. Putin didn’t want to go and got the South Africans to give him cover. He’s still humiliated and exposed as weak, though.